Week 3 Free Pick – Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Baltimore Ravens (+6) are flying west to visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. CBS will broadcast the action and this early afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Week 3 Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

In this Sunday AFC matchup, Kansas City is getting picked as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The Ravens are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -230. There might be some good live betting possibilities for the game, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.

The game’s over/under was initially set at 51.5, but the over is receiving most of the early sharp action.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as both the Ravens and the Chiefs are up exactly 2.0 units so far.

The Ravens have gone 2-0 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Chiefs are also 2-0 SU.

The Ravens are hoping to stay unbeaten after a 23-17 win over Arizona last week. The Ravens secondary allowed the Cardinals to air it out for 349 yards. On the offense, Lamar Jackson completed 24 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson (120 yards on 16 rush attempts) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Mark Ingram II (47 yards on 13 carries). Andrews (eight receptions, 112 yards, one TD) and Marquise Brown (eight catches, 86 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas City is coming off of a 28-10 win over Oakland in Week 2. Patrick Mahomes completed 30-of-44 passes for 443 yards and four touchdowns. LeSean McCoy (23 rushing yards on 11 attempts) handled the running game as Travis Kelce (seven receptions, 107 yards, one TD) and Demarcus Robinson (six catches, 172 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Baltimore has run the ball on 55.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 38.1 percent. The Ravens have run for 223.5 yards/game and have two scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are putting up 72 rush yards per game and have only one rushing TD.

It appears that the Ravens should hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 1.8 to opponents. The Chiefs have tallied 3.0 yards per carry and allowed 6.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Ravens offense has logged 325.5 yards/game in the air overall and has eight passing scores so far. The Chiefs have produced a ridiculous 410.5 pass yards per contest and have seven total pass TD.

Defensively, Baltimore has allowed 20.5 rush yards and 269.5 pass yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 274 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Ravens are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.62 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs have given up a 6.27 ANY/A.

Mahomes has completed 30-of-44 passes for 443 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. Mahomes’ adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 11.15 for the year and 12.04 over his last two outings. In the other huddle, Jackson is up to 272 passing yards this season. He’s completed 24-of-37 attempts with two passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Jackson’s got a 7.64 ANY/A for the year, although that number sits at 12.02 over the last two games.

When these two franchises faced each other a year ago, Kansas City knocked off Baltimore by a field goal 27-24.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Pick

SU Winner: Ravens, ATS Winner: Ravens, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Baltimore defense has six sacks on the year while Kansas City has four.
  • The Kansas City offense has lost one fumble this season while the Baltimore offense has yet to lose any.
  • The Ravens offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Chiefs have put up seven such plays.
  • The Baltimore defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up one such play.
  • The Baltimore offense has created two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created one such run.
  • The Ravens defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Chiefs have given up one such run.
  • The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last game going into it was 53. The under cashed in that 28-10 victory over Oakland.
  • The Over/Under for Baltimore’s last game going into it was 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 23-17 win over Arizona.