Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies are ready to square off against their division rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in a Thursday night game. The matchup will begin at 12:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia to catch the action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Odds
Las Vegas has Atlanta (-130) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+120). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to finish below 9 runs, then Vegas is putting up -105 odds for the under. Playing the over return -115 odds. This game currently has a runline of Phillies +1.5 (-175) and Braves -1.5 (+155).
The Phillies have gone 78-72 SU this year and are 71-78 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, losing 3.9 units for moneyline bettors and 8.2 units ATS. The Braves, on the other hand, are 93-60 SU and 76-76 ATS. They’ve gained 21.4 units for moneyline bettors and 0.8 units ATS.
Braves games have an over/under record of 73-71-8 in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 70-75-4.
The right-handed Aaron Nola is getting the nod for the visiting Phillies. Nola is 12-5 with a 3.62 ERA and 216 strikeouts. He’s 3-1 with 35 strikeouts and a 4.06 ERA against Atlanta this year (five starts).
The Braves will deploy righty Mike Soroka (12-4, 2.57 ERA) to the mound. Soroka has 130 strikeouts and 39 walks as well as a 1.09 WHIP. Soroka is 0-0 with 11 strikeouts and a 4.82 ERA over two starts against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.31 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.50, along with a WHIP of 1.35.
The Phillies offense has slashed .247/.324/.428 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Philadelphia’s offensive production has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .282/.337/.407 with 12 home runs, 66 RBIs and 70 runs scored. Segura (.283/.328/.429) is up to 12 homers, 58 RBIs and 77 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.19, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 72 games against NL East opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.37 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.14.
The Atlanta offense has put up 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .249/.330/.364 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the Braves’ batters this year. Albies is hitting .293/.350/.502 with 23 home runs, 81 RBIs, 98 runs and 15 stolen bases, while Freeman’s line is .299/.394/.562 with 38 homers, 117 RBIs and 112 runs.
Phillies at Braves Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- Philadelphia has tallied 15 extra-base hits over its last five games. Atlanta has 13 XBH over its last five.
- Atlanta has recorded 20.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.2 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 12 over their last 10.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .752 this season and an OPS of .739 against right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .793 overall and .794 against righties.
