Freddie Freeman and the surging Atlanta Braves will be taking on their NL East foe Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in a Tuesday night game. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia to catch the action.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Las Vegas has Atlanta (-155) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+145). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 9.5 runs scored, then Vegas is teeing up -120 odds. Playing the over can return even money (+100). There’s a runline of Braves -1.5 (-110) and Phillies +1.5 (-110) for this matchup.
The Braves have gone 90-55 SU this year and are 72-72 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 22.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 0.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 74-69 SU and 68-74 ATS. They’ve lost 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.4 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have had an over/under record of 67-71-4 in 2019. The Braves have an over/under record of 69-67-8.
Max Fried will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The left-handed Fried is 16-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 159 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 6.94 ERA against Philadelphia this year (two starts).
The Phillies are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Jason Vargas (6-7, 4.27 ERA), who’s got 104 strikeouts and 52 walks as well as a 1.30 WHIP. Vargas is 0-0 with a 108.00 ERA in one start against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.11 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 8.25 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.43, along with a K/9 of 9.23.
Braves hitters have slashed .259/.339/.458 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies, who have combined to launch 59 home runs. Freeman is hitting .301/.393/.572 with 38 home runs, 116 RBIs and 110 runs scored. Albies has a .289 average with 21 homers, 76 RBIs, 93 runs and 15 steals.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.66 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. In 62 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.81.
The Philadelphia hitters have produced 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .246/.289/.437 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Hernandez is hitting .280/.331/.399 with 10 home runs, 61 RBIs and 68 runs scored, while Segura’s line sits at .286/.330/.432 with 11 homers, 54 RBIs and 76 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 8.6 units and are 17-15 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 14 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 10.2 units and are 15-22 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 17 of those games, compared to 20 that went under the total.
Braves vs. Phillies Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games SU.
- The Atlanta defense has permitted zero errors over the last five contests, compared to three errors for Philadelphia over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
- The Braves have a team OPS of .797 this season, including an OPS of .787 against left-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .753 overall and .784 against southpaws.
