Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will be taking the field versus the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in a Thursday showdown. This NL matchup begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can watch the game on both ATPT and FSFL.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Las Vegas has Pittsburgh (-150) as the favorite over Miami (+140). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 9 runs scored, then Vegas is offering -115 odds. Playing the over return -105 odds. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-155) and Pirates -1.5 (+135) for this matchup.
The Pirates are 61-78 straight up (SU) and 68-70 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 8.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 18.2 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. On the other hand, the Marlins have gone 49-89 SU this year and are 68-69 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 11.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.
Pirates games have had an over/under record of 77-54-7 in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 63-63-11.
The right-handed Elieser Hernandez will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Hernandez is 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA and 68 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Pirates are putting the ball in the right hand of Dario Agrazal (4-3, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), who has 27 strikeouts and 14 walks this season. Agrazal is 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.26 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.05, along with a WHIP of 1.27.
Marlins hitters have slashed .239/.298/.369 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s offense. Castro is slashing .272/.295/.420 with 17 home runs, 74 RBIs and 52 runs scored, while Anderson has a .261 average with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs scored.
For the home team, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has given up 5.5 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 5.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.84 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
The Pittsburgh offense has produced 4.8 runs per contest, including 6.9 per game over its last 10 games and 7.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .333/.398/.532 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
Right fielder Starling Marte and first baseman Josh Bell have led the Pirates’ offense this year. Marte is slashing .293/.340/.501 with 23 home runs, 79 RBIs, 95 runs and 25 stolen bases, while Bell’s line is .278/.365/.573 with 35 homers, 111 RBIs and 91 runs.
The Marlins have lost 10.2 units and are 48-54 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 50 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 1.0 units and are 52-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 53 of those games, compared to 43 which went under the total.
Marlins vs. Pirates MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has cashed in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
- The Pirates have won five of their last six games SU.
- Miami has posted 16.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.2 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit 16 over their last 10.
- The Marlins have a total OPS of .667 this season and an OPS of .653 against right-handed pitchers. The Pirates’ OPS sits at .757 overall and .780 against righties.
