Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will make a road trip to Cincinnati to play the Reds at Great American Ball Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast this NL showdown.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Cincinnati (-150) is the favorite over Philadelphia (+140) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this day game at 10 runs (-110 for both the over and the under). There’s a runline of Phillies +1.5 (-155) and Reds -1.5 (+135) for this matchup.
The Reds are 74-61 against the spread (ATS), but only 64-73 straight up (SU). The team has lost 7.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 3.8 units ATS. The Phillies have gone 70-65 SU this year and are 61-73 ATS. In total, the club has lost 7.1 units for moneyline bettors and 12.8 units ATS.
Cincinnati games have an over/under record of 53-76-6 in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 64-66-4.
Drew Smyly will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. The southpaw Smyly is 2-6 with a 6.95 ERA and 90 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against Cincinnati this year.
The Reds are turning to righty Anthony DeSclafani (9-7, 4.05 ERA), who’s got 139 punchouts and 42 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.29. DeSclafani hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (0-0, 6.23 ERA and seven strikeouts across 4.1 innings).
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.03 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.69, along with a WHIP of 1.35.
Phillies hitters have slashed .249/.327/.425 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 6.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .284/.335/.397 with eight home runs, 57 RBIs and 62 runs scored. Segura (.287/.334/.435) is up to 11 homers, 53 RBIs and 71 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 4.48 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
The Cincinnati offense has produced 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .166/.246/.331 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias have led the Reds’ offense this year. Suarez is slashing .261/.342/.546 with 40 home runs, 87 RBIs and 77 runs scored, and the line for Iglesias stands at .294/.322/.411 with nine homers, 50 RBIs and 56 runs.
The Phillies have gained 2.0 units and are 47-51 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 48 of those games, compared to 46 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.7 units and are 19-12 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under.
Phillies at Reds Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has cashed in four of Philadelphia’s last seven contests.
- Philadelphia fielders have three errors over the last five contests, compared to six errors for Cincinnati over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 18 over their last 10.
- The Phillies have an OPS of .752 this season and an OPS of .744 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS stands at .746 overall and .733 versus righties.
