The New York Mets will be taking on their division rival Philadelphia Phillies in a Sunday night game. The matchup is going to be nationally broadcasted on ESPN and the first pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Philadelphia (+105) is entering into this one as an underdog to New York (-115) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total now stand at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. The game’s runline odds stand at +130 for taking the Mets -1.5 runs and -150 for the Phillies +1.5 runs.
The Phillies are 69-65 straight up (SU) and 61-72 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 6.1 units for moneyline bettors and 11.3 units ATS. The Mets, on the other hand, have gone 69-66 SU this year and are 68-66 against the spread. In total, the team’s lost 8.5 units for moneyline bettors and 6.3 units ATS.
Phillies games have had an over/under record of 64-65-4 in 2019. New York has been a good over bet with a total record of 68-54-12.
Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. The right-handed Stroman (7-12, 3.29 ERA) has recorded 124 punchouts in 150.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Phillies are putting the ball in the right hand of Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), who’s got 103 strikeouts and 36 walks this season. Eflin is 1-1 with seven strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA across two starts against New York this year.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff has yielded 5.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 57 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.92 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.80.
The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .319/.369/.548 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the way for the Phillies’ hitters this year. Hernandez is hitting .285/.336/.399 with eight home runs, 57 RBIs and 61 runs scored, and Segura’s line sits at .287/.334/.435 with 11 homers, 53 RBIs and 71 runs.
In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.12 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.98, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 9.62.
The Mets offense has slashed .257/.328/.436 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
New York’s hitters have been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil, who collectively have swatted 28 home runs. Rosario is slashing .288/.325/.435 with 12 home runs, 58 RBIs, 65 runs and 15 steals. McNeil (.326/.393/.524) has produced 16 homers, 57 RBIs and 68 runs scored.
The Mets have lost 0.8 units and are 51-50 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 54 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.0 units and are 47-51 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 48 of those games, as opposed to 46 that’ve gone under.
Mets at Phillies Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The under has hit in only two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Mets have a total OPS of .764 this season and an OPS of .754 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .751 overall and .743 versus righties.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four games SU.
- Philadelphia has recorded 26 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 30 over its last five.
- The Mets have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
