The New York Mets will do battle against their divisional rival Philadelphia Phillies in a Saturday day game. The matchup is going to be televised nationally on Fox Sports One and the opening pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
New York (-110) is favored against Philadelphia (+100) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 9.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total now sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at +135 for the Mets -1.5 runs and -155 for the Phillies +1.5.
The Phillies are 69-64 straight up (SU) and 61-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 10.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mets are 68-66 SU and have gone 67-66 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 9.9 units for moneyline bettors and 7.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Philadelphia games have a 63-65-4 over/under record in 2019. New York has been a good over bet with a total record of 67-54-12.
The left-handed Steven Matz is the projected starter for the visiting Mets. Matz is 8-8 with a 4.06 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He’s 1-2 with seven strikeouts and an 11.45 ERA against Philadelphia this year (three starts).
The Phillies are countering with Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.09 ERA). Vargas has 96 strikeouts and 49 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.27. Vargas has yet to face the Mets this year and did not record a start against them in 2018.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have an ERA of 4.59, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.72 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 56 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.84 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.91.
Philadelphia’s hitters have produced 4.9 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .302/.352/.522 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .284/.335/.398 with eight home runs, 57 RBIs and 61 runs scored, while Segura’s line is .285/.333/.429 with 11 homers, 53 RBIs and 70 runs.
In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starters own a 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.10 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.03, along with a K/9 of 9.58.
Mets hitters have slashed .257/.328/.436 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil continue to lead New York’s hitters. Rosario is slashing .287/.325/.436 with 12 home runs, 58 RBIs, 64 runs and 15 stolen bases, while McNeil (.326/.393/.524) is up to 16 homers, 57 RBIs and 68 runs scored.
The Mets have lost 7.7 units and are 17-16 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 8.2 units and are 14-21 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 19 which went under the total.
Mets vs. Phillies Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- New York has recorded 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. Philadelphia has 22 XBH over its last five.
- The Mets have an OPS of .764 this season and an OPS of .789 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .752 overall and .769 against southpaws.
- Philadelphia has recorded 24.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 27.8 over its last five.
- The Mets have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
