The Miami Marlins are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at Marlins Park. Fox Sports Ohio will televise this NL matchup and the action gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds
Miami (receiving +135 odds) is heading into this contest as an underdog against Cincinnati and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 7 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total currently sit at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. The game’s current runline odds stand at +100 for taking the Reds -1.5 runs and -120 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Reds have gone 61-69 SU this year and are 71-58 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.2 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 4.6 units ATS. Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 47-83 SU and 65-64 ATS. The team has lost 8.8 units for moneyline bettors and 8.8 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 59-60-10 in 2019. The Reds have been a great under bet with a total record of 50-73-6.
Right-hander Luis Castillo will get the nod for the visiting Reds. Castillo (12-5, 3.04 ERA) has recorded 179 strikeouts in 153 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.
The Marlins are turning to Caleb Smith (8-7, 3.82 ERA). Smith has 138 strikeouts and 43 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.10. Smith has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and seven strikeouts across five and 2-third innings).
As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 4.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.10 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.
The Miami hitters are putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 6.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .260/.321/.438 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is slashing .262/.285/.390 with 13 home runs, 67 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .261 with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs.
In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.69 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.52, along with a WHIP of 1.26 and a K-per-9 of 9.84.
The Reds offense has slashed .251/.320/.431 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Cincinnati’s offense has been led by shortstop Jose Iglesias and third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who’ve collectively launched 45 home runs. Iglesias is slashing .295/.323/.419 with nine home runs, 49 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Suarez (.256/.338/.528) is up to 36 homers, 80 RBIs and 70 runs scored.
The Reds have lost 2.7 units and are 18-12 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 11 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 6.8 units and are 46-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 41 of those games, compared to 48 which went under the total.
Reds vs. Marlins MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has cashed in only two of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
- The Reds have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
- The Reds have a total OPS of .751 this season, including an OPS of .759 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .669 overall and .684 against southpaws.
- Miami has posted 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.6 over its last five.
