Javier Baez and the struggling Chicago Cubs will do battle against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in a Thursday showdown. WGN will be televising this NL showdown and the action gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Sportsbooks have Philadelphia (+130) as the underdog to Chicago (-140). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to go under 9.5 runs scored, then bookmakers are offering -105 odds. Playing the over can return -115 odds. This game currently has a runline of Cubs -1.5 (+105) and Phillies +1.5 (-125).
The Cubs have gone 64-56 SU this year and are 57-62 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.1 units for moneyline bettors and 3.8 units ATS. Chicago is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in three of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 62-58 SU and 54-65 ATS. The team’s lost 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 12.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 56-59-4 in 2019. Cubs games have gone over 55 times, gone under 55 times and pushed on nine instances.
Yu Darvish will get the nod for Chicago. The right-handed Darvish (4-6, 4.43 ERA) has recorded 158 punchouts in 131 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies are sending lefty Drew Smyly (2-6, 6.96 ERA) to the mound. Smyly has 76 strikeouts and 41 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.65. Smyly has yet to face the Cubs this year and did not pitch in the majors last season.
Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.85 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.04, along with a K/9 of 8.76.
Cubs hitters have slashed .254/.334/.451 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 5.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant continue to lead Chicago’s hitters. Baez is slashing .286/.318/.547 with 28 home runs, 81 RBIs, 82 runs and 10 stolen bases, while Bryant (.292/.391/.537) has produced 24 homers, 59 RBIs and 87 runs scored.
For the home team, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 4.9 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.52, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.
Philadelphia’s offense has produced 4.8 runs per outing, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 6.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .271/.363/.476 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is hitting .285/.331/.403 with eight home runs, 52 RBIs and 52 runs scored, and Segura’s line is .283/.330/.430 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs and 62 runs scored.
The Cubs have lost 6.7 units and are 10-16 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 11 of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 1.6 units and are 42-46 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 41 of those games, compared to 43 that went under the total.
Cubs vs. Phillies Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of Chicago’s last seven outings.
- The Cubs have lost four of their last five games SU.
- Chicago has recorded 24.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 14.8 over its last five.
- The Cubs have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 11 over their last 10.
- The Cubs have an OPS of .785 this season and an OPS of .737 against left-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .744 overall and .773 against lefties.
