Jeff McNeil and the New York Mets will be hitting the diamond against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in a Wednesday night game. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup and the game gets going at 7:20 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Sportsbooks have New York (+130) as the underdog to Atlanta (-140). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 10 runs, then bookmakers are putting up -115 odds. Picking the over return -105 odds. There’s a runline of Mets +1.5 (-170) and Braves -1.5 (+150) for this matchup.
The Mets have gone 61-58 SU this year and are 61-57 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, losing 4.6 units for moneyline gamblers and 2.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in three of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 71-50 SU and 56-64 ATS. They’ve gained 9.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 8.3 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the over has hit in five of those seven.
Braves games have a 62-51-7 over/under record in 2019. New York has also been a great over bet with a total record of 62-45-11.
Steven Matz is getting the nod for the visiting Mets. The left-handed Matz is 7-7 with a 4.49 ERA and 104 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 13 strikeouts and a 6.23 ERA against Atlanta this year (three starts).
The Braves are turning to lefty Dallas Keuchel (3-5, 4.83 ERA), who has 46 strikeouts and 20 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.36. Keuchel hasn’t faced the Mets yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2018.
New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.03 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.19 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.09, along with a K-per-9 of 9.37.
Mets hitters have slashed .254/.326/.436 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
New York’s offense has been fueled by outfielder Jeff McNeil and shortstop Amed Rosario. McNeil is slashing .332/.400/.529 with 15 home runs, 55 RBIs and 67 runs scored, while Rosario (.275/.314/.433) has produced 12 homers, 48 RBIs, 54 runs and 14 stolen bases.
In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In 51 games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.74 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.32.
The Atlanta offense has put up 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .250/.340/.435 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the Braves’ batters this year. Acuna Jr. is hitting .299/.378/.543 with 34 home runs, 81 RBIs, 101 runs and 28 stolen bases, and Freeman’s line sits at .311/.404/.568 with 29 homers, 96 RBIs and 94 runs scored.
The Mets have gained 0.1 units and are 16-11 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 13 of those games, compared to 12 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 3.2 units and are 13-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, as opposed to 10 which went under the total.
Mets at Braves Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has cashed in five of Atlanta’s last seven games.
- New York has recorded 24.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.0 over its last five.
- The Mets have hit 22 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 18 over their last 10.
- The Mets have a team OPS of .763 this season and an OPS of .801 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .801 overall and .809 against southpaws.
