Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves will do battle against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Sunday matinee. The game gets underway 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida is in line to broadcast the matchup.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Odds
Sportsbooks have Atlanta (-190) as the favorite over Miami (+180). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to finish below 9 runs, then Vegas is currently offering -130 odds for the under. Playing the over can return +110 odds. There’s a runline of Braves -1.5 (-135) and Marlins +1.5 (+115) for this matchup.
The Marlins are 58-57 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 44-72 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 6.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Braves are 69-50 SU and have gone 56-62 against the spread. In total, the team’s accumulated 10.7 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 5.3 units ATS. Atlanta is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven.
Marlins games have had an over/under record of 52-54-9 in 2019. The Braves have been a decent over bet with a total record of 61-51-6.
Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz will get the start for the visiting Braves. Foltynewicz is 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made three starts against the Marlins in 2018, putting together a 2-1 record against them with a 0.95 ERA and 19 strikeouts.
The Marlins are putting the ball in the right hand of Hector Noesi (0-1, 9.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), who has three strikeouts and three walks. Noesi did not record any MLB appearances last season.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.15 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.42, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K/9 of 9.21.
Braves hitters have slashed .263/.340/.461 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this season, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s offensive production has been fueled by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies, who collectively have launched 50 home runs. Acuna Jr. is slashing .296/.377/.532 with 32 home runs, 79 RBIs, 97 runs and 28 stolen bases, while Albies is hitting .302 with 18 homers, 65 RBIs, 78 runs and 11 stolen bases.
For the home team, Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 4.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 56 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.87 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.91.
The Miami offense has put up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .307/.351/.449 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas have paced the Marlins’ offense this year. Castro is hitting .257/.282/.378 with 11 home runs, 53 RBIs and 36 runs scored, while the line for Rojas stands at .289/.344/.384 with four homers, 33 RBIs and 44 runs.
The Braves have gained 7.5 units and are 43-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 46 of those games, compared to 41 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 6.5 units and are 39-45 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 35 of those games, compared to 43 that went under.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- Atlanta has tallied 19 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Miami has 13 XBH over its last five.
- Miami has posted 23.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 26.0 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
- The Braves have a team OPS of .800 this season and an OPS of .797 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .666 overall and .650 against righties.
