Starling Marte and the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to square off against their NL Central foe Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in a Wednesday showdown. The game gets going at 12:35 p.m. ET and the matchup will be televised on ATPT and FSOH.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Las Vegas has Pittsburgh (+190) as the underdog to Cincinnati (-210). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to finish below 9.5 runs, then Vegas is offering -110 odds for the under. Picking the over will return -110 odds. There’s a runline of Pirates +1.5 (-115) and Reds -1.5 (-105) for this matchup.
The Reds are 59-45 against the spread (ATS), but only 49-56 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 3.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 6.0 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Pirates have gone 47-60 SU this year and are 53-53 ATS. In total, the club has lost 6.4 units for moneyline gamblers and 11.2 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone over in three of those seven.
Cincinnati games have an over/under record of 38-62-4 in 2019. Pittsburgh has been a great over bet with a total record of 59-41-6.
Dario Agrazal is getting the nod for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) has recorded 13 punchouts in 33.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Reds are putting the ball in the hands of righty Luis Castillo (9-4, 2.71 ERA), who has 144 strikeouts and 59 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.15. Castillo is 0-0 with 12 strikeouts and a 1.64 ERA over two starts against Pittsburgh this year.
Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.4 runs per game and its starters own a 5.13 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.39 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.76, along with a WHIP of 1.41.
Pirates hitters have slashed .267/.325/.429 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Right fielder Starling Marte and first baseman Josh Bell continue to lead Pittsburgh’s hitters. Marte is hitting .285/.327/.499 with 18 home runs, 61 RBIs, 74 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Bell has a .284 average with 27 homers, 88 RBIs and 74 runs scored.
For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has given up 4.3 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 51 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.96 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.08.
Cincinnati’s hitters have put up 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .262/.324/.409 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and first baseman Joey Votto. Suarez is slashing .258/.336/.526 with 28 home runs, 69 RBIs and 56 runs scored, and Votto’s line is .265/.351/.406 with 10 homers, 33 RBIs and 54 runs.
The Pirates have lost 0.3 units and are 42-38 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 42 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 4.2 units and are 44-37 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 30 of those games, as opposed to 48 that’ve cashed the under.
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – UNDER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven contests.
- Pittsburgh fielders have 11 errors over the last 10 games, compared to only five errors for Cincinnati over its last 10.
- The Pirates have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.
- The Pirates have a total OPS of .755 this season and an OPS of .780 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS stands at .739 overall and .719 against righties.
