Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves will face off against their NL East foe Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in a Sunday day game. NBC Sports Philadelphia will be airing the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Las Vegas has Atlanta (+130) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-140). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to finish under 9 runs scored, then Vegas is currently offering -110 odds. Taking the over can give you -110 odds. There’s a runline of Braves +1.5 (-170) and Phillies -1.5 (+150) for this matchup.
The Braves are 62-43 SU and have gone 50-54 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 10.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 2.3 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 54-50 SU and 48-55 ATS. The team’s lost 2.1 units for moneyline bettors and 8.5 units ATS.
Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 48-51-4 in 2019. Atlanta has been a decent over bet with a total record of 52-46-6.
Kevin Gausman is getting the nod for the visiting Braves. The right-handed Gausman is 3-5 with a 5.71 ERA and 72 strikeouts. This will be his first outing against Philadelphia this year. He made three starts against the team in 2018, compiling a 0-2 record with a 5.51 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
The Phillies are sending righty Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.64 ERA) to the mound. Nola has 145 strikeouts and 52 walks as well as a 1.29 WHIP. Nola is 2-0 with 20 strikeouts and a 2.95 ERA across three starts against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.42 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.13 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.99, along with a K/9 of 9.37.
Braves hitters have slashed .262/.340/.456 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. have led Atlanta’s offense. Freeman is slashing .305/.397/.567 with 25 home runs, 81 RBIs and 78 runs scored, while Acuna Jr. is hitting .295 with 25 homers, 64 RBIs, 83 runs and 23 steals.
For the home team, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.58, a WHIP of 1.37 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.78 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 51 games against NL East foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.33.
The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .241/.297/.404 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Hernandez is hitting .279/.329/.401 with seven home runs, 43 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Segura’s line is .278/.321/.439 with 11 homers, 44 RBIs and 58 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 6.2 units and are 39-42 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 39 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 4.3 units and are 37-40 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 35 of those games, compared to 38 that went under.
Braves vs. Phillies Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The under has cashed in five of Atlanta’s last seven games.
- Atlanta has posted 23.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 27.0 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.
- The Braves have an OPS of .796 this season and an OPS of .790 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .741 overall and .733 against righties.
