The Miami Marlins will play host to the San Diego Padres at Marlins Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports San Diego will broadcast this NL matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Odds
San Diego (-115) is coming into this one as the favorite over Miami (+105) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (+105 for the over and -125 for the under). The game’s most recent runline odds sit at +130 for taking the Padres -1.5 runs and -150 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Padres are 46-49 SU and are 41-53 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 6.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 17.4 units ATS. San Diego is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 35-58 SU and 46-46 ATS. The team has lost 2.2 units for moneyline bettors and 9.7 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.
Miami games have had an over/under record of 41-45-6 so far in 2019. San Diego has an over/under record of 46-41-7.
Right-hander Dinelson Lamet is the probable starter for San Diego. Lamet (0-2, 6.30 ERA) has recorded 14 punchouts in 10 innings so far. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Marlins are countering with Caleb Smith (5-4, 3.46 ERA). Smith has 94 strikeouts and 26 walks, along with a 1.04 WHIP. Smith is 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA in one start against San Diego this year.
As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 3.94, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.89 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.
Miami’s offense has produced 3.6 runs per outing, including 3.7 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .253/.319/.446 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is slashing .255/.280/.359 with seven home runs, 40 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Rojas is hitting .289 with 94 hits, 29 RBIs and 35 runs.
In the visiting dugout, San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.94, along with a WHIP of 1.22.
Padres hitters have slashed .243/.309/.429 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado continue to lead San Diego’s hitters. Hosmer is hitting .284/.333/.440 with 13 home runs, 63 RBIs and 49 runs scored. Machado (.273/.344/.511) is up to 23 homers, 62 RBIs and 55 runs scored.
The Padres have lost 1.7 units and are 8-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 3.0 units and are 30-37 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 27 of those games, compared to 36 that went under the total.
Padres at Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- San Diego has recorded 11 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Miami has 15 XBH over its last five.
- The Padres have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 11 over their last 10.
- The Padres have an OPS of .738 this season, including an OPS of .754 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .663 overall and .678 against lefties.
- San Diego has posted 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.4 over its last five.
