The Houston Rockets (1-2) will be 2-point favorites at home in game four of the Western Conference Semifinals when they meet the Golden State Warriors (2-1). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points and it begins at 9:30 p.m. ET on Monday, May 6, 2019.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Betting Odds
In game three, Harden led the Rockets to a 126-121 victory. He recorded 41 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Houston covered as a 3.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 247 points, which was well over the projected point total of 219.5. Houston had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.8 vs. 15.6). Golden State, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (6.9 vs. 11.1).
Warriors games have gone under the projected point total 51.6 percent of the time. Golden State has a respectable 63-28 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (39-51-1 against the spread (ATS)).
Vegas is exceedingly precise when predicting totals of Rockets games, with an even split between overs and unders. Additionally, Houston is 58-32 SU and 45-42-3 ATS.
The Warriors are 11-6 ATS with 13 overs and four unders in the playoffs, while the Rockets are 6-5 with six overs and five unders
This contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as two of the NBA’s best offenses square off. Houston ranks second with 112.9 points per 100 possessions and Golden State is first (114.7).
Warriors at Rockets Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Warriors rank 12th in rebounds per game (45.9) while the Rockets rank 28th (42.1).
- Golden State ranks first in assists per game (29.4) while Houston ranks 28th (20.9).
- The Warriors rank seventh in points allowed in the paint per game (46.7) while the Rockets rank 25th (51.2).
- Houston ranks fourth in steals per game (8.5) while Golden State ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (7.7).
- Golden State ranks third in fast break points per game (18.8) while Houston ranks 19th (12.0).
- The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (45.1) while the Warriors rank 26th in three pointers allowed per game (33.8).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks per game (6.4) while the Rockets rank 17th (5.0).
- Houston averages 13.0 second chance points per game, which ranks 17th in the NBA. Golden State ranks 20th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Houston ranks fifth in points off turnovers per game (17.9) while Golden State ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
- Golden State is 10-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Houston is 18-2.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Warriors are 63-20 and the Rockets are 55-22.
- Golden State is 21-24 ATS on the road, while Houston is 26-17-2 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 23 of the Rockets’ 45 home games, while 25 of the Warriors’ 45 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Golden State and Houston are both 2-3 ATS.
- The Warriors have 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games, while the Rockets have 3 unders and 2 overs
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 118.0 points per game (0.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.8 points per game (3.3 above their season average).
- The Rockets have been outscored by an average of 2.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 4.8 points.
