Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Free Prediction 05/06/19

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The Boston Celtics (1-2) will be 1.5-point favorites at home in game four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals when they go head-to-head with the Milwaukee Bucks (2-1). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points and action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, May 6, 2019.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ATS Odds

In game three, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 123-116 win. He recorded a double-double with 32 points and 13 rebounds. Milwaukee covered as a 2-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 239 points, which was well over the projected point total of 220. The Bucks’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Celtics. Milwaukee had a rate of 13.2, while Boston posted a mark of 15.2.

Just over half of the Bucks’ games have finished over the projected point total. Milwaukee holds records of 66-23 straight up (SU) and 53-33-3 against the spread (ATS).

Games involving the Celtics have a tendency to finish over the total (55.1 percent). Additionally, Boston owns records of 54-35 SU and 43-44-2 ATS.

For the playoffs, the Bucks are 3-3 ATS with four unders and two overs while the Celtics are 11-7 with 10 overs, seven unders and one push

Points could be at a premium in this matchup between a pair of the NBA’s premier defenses. Boston ranks fifth in defensive efficiency (105.2) and Milwaukee is first (103.1).

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Celtics rank 14th (13.4).
  • Boston averages 34.2 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Milwaukee ranks last in three pointers allowed per game (36.0).
  • The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (11.1) while the Celtics rank 14th (13.6).
  • Boston ranks fifth in steals per game (8.4) while Milwaukee ranks 17th (7.4).
  • Boston ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while Milwaukee ranks 12th (4.8).
  • The Bucks rank third in points in the paint per game (52.9) while the Celtics rank 26th (43.8).
  • The Celtics average 25.9 assists per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Bucks rank 18th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
  • Milwaukee ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Boston ranks seventh (15.0).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (49.8) while Boston ranks 20th (44.8).
  • Milwaukee is 22-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Boston is 20-4.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Celtics are 52-26 and the Bucks are 65-18.
  • Milwaukee is 27-15-2 ATS on the road, while Boston is 22-22 ATS at home.
  • The Bucks have 23 overs and 21 unders in 44 road games.
  • The Celtics have 26 overs and 18 unders in 44 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Bucks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Celtics are 3-2.
  • In their last five games, Milwaukee has 4 overs and 1 under, while Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 116.4 points per game (1.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (1.4 below their season average).
  • The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 4.4 for the season.