Jean Segura and the Philadelphia Phillies are preparing to take on their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Sunday matinee. NBC Sports Philadelphia is in line to televise the matchup and the game gets going at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Bookmakers have Philadelphia (-170) as the favorite over Miami (+160). The total currently stands at 8 runs and bettors can play the over for -120 and the under for an even +100. There’s a runline of Phillies -1.5 (-120) and Marlins +1.5 (+100) for this matchup.
The Marlins are only 4-11 straight up (SU) and 6-8 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 6.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.2 units ATS. Miami has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven. The Phillies are 8-5 SU and have gone 6-6 ATS. In total, the club has accumulated 2.9 units for moneyline bettors over the early part of the year and 1.4 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Marlins games have had an over/under record of 7-6-1 so far in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 8-4.
The right-handed Vince Velasquez (0-0, 3.00 ERA) will get the nod for Philadelphia. Velasquez recorded 161 strikeouts over 146 innings last year (30 starts) but finished the season 9-12 overall with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He made four starts against the Marlins in 2018 and put together a 2-1 record against them with a 3.72 ERA and 23 strikeouts.
The Marlins are rolling with righty Jose Urena (0-3, 9.22 ERA) as their starter. Urena started 31 games last year and finished the season 9-12 overall with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He recorded five starts against Philadelphia a year ago and registered a 2-2 record with a 4.50 ERA and 24 strikeouts.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.04 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.01 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.44, along with a WHIP of 1.41 and a K-per-9 of 8.35.
The Phillies offense has slashed .252/.360/.446 on its way to 5.8 runs scored per game this year, including 6.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by shortstop Jean Segura and right fielder Odubel Herrera. Segura is slashing .309/.345/.418 with 17 hits, seven RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Herrera (.300/.345/.440) is up to 15 hits, seven RBIs and six runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitchers have yielded 5.1 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have a 4.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. In eight games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.49 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.34.
Miami’s offense is putting up 3.0 runs per contest, including 3.8 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .224/.284/.340 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and catcher Jorge Alfaro have led the Marlins’ offense so far. Castro is slashing .233/.258/.350 with 14 hits, four RBIs and seven runs scored, and Alfaro’s line is .316/.366/.553 with 12 hits, six RBIs and five runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 2.9 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, as opposed to four that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 4.0 units and are 3-6 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in three of those games, compared to five that went under.
Phillies at Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has cashed in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- Miami has posted 18.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.4 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .805 this season and an OPS of .827 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .655 overall and .623 against righties.
