The Dallas Mavericks (32-48) welcome the Phoenix Suns (19-62) to American Airlines Center to open their Western Conference schedules. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 9, 2019.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
The Mavericks won a close one over the Memphis Grizzlies in their last game, 129-127, covering as 1.5-point favorites. The Suns, on the other hand, were dismantled by the Houston Rockets, 149-113, and were unable to cover as 18.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 42 points over the projected point total of 214, while the Phoenix game finished 39.5 points over the projected point total of 222.5.
Dallas dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 5.0 (better than their season average of 12.3) and a free throw rate of 0.276 (above their season average of 0.217). Memphis was 6.0 and 0.245, respectively, for those same stats. Phoenix, on the other hand, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (16-21; 76.2 percent). Dorian Finney-Smith played a pivotal role for Dallas with 16 points and 12 rebounds. Jamal Crawford had a good outing for Phoenix, finishing with 27 points and six assists.
In three contests against each other this season, the Suns have won two. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 198 points, well under the projected point total of 217.5. Phoenix lost 104-94, covering as an 11-point underdog. One of Dallas’ largest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They made 45 trips to the line, while Phoenix went just 21 times. Luka Doncic was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points.
Just over half of the Suns’ games have finished under the total. Phoenix holds records of 19-62 straight up (SU) and 36-45 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Phoenix, a little over half of Mavericks games have finished under the O/U total. Dallas has a solid 44-34-2 record ATS, despite being 32-48 SU.
The Suns’ Josh Jackson has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 16 points,5.8 rebounds,1.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Trey Burke has averaged 14 points,4.8 assists during that same time frame for the Mavericks.
This could end up being a mistake-prone game for the offense of Dallas. Dallas ranks 22nd in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 13.4 percent), while the disruptive defense of Phoenix forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (14.6 percent).
Suns at Mavericks Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 21st in assists per game (23.3) while the Suns rank 24th in assists allowed per game (25.9).
- Phoenix ranks second in steals per game (8.9) while Dallas ranks 28th (6.5).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (36.6) while the Suns rank 23rd (29.2).
- Dallas ranks 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.9) while Phoenix ranks last (53.2).
- Dallas ranks 16th in rebounds per game (45.1) while Phoenix ranks last (40.4).
- The Suns rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while the Mavericks rank 27th (14.5).
- The Mavericks rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (13.1) while the Suns rank last (15.4).
- Phoenix averages 15.2 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (16.7).
- Phoenix is 5-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Dallas is 11-4.
- When scoring above 100 points, the Mavericks are 31-37 and the Suns are 18-40.
- Phoenix is 18-22 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 23-16-1 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 22 of the Mavericks’ 40 home games, while 20 of the Suns’ 40 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Phoenix has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (6.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (2.6 above their season average).
- The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.2, down from 9.3 for the season.
