The Atlanta Braves will play host to the Miami Marlins at SunTrust Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will televise the action.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Atlanta (receiving -160 odds) is favored over Miami and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (-120 for the under and +100 for the over). The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -145 for taking the Marlins +1.5 runs and +125 for the Braves -1.5 runs.
The Braves are 4-4 straight up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 1.0 units for moneyline bettors and 1.6 units ATS. On the other hand, the Marlins are 3-6 SU and have gone 3-5 against the spread. Overall, the club has lost 3.4 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 3.3 units ATS.
Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 4-2-1 so far in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 5-2-1.
Caleb Smith (0-0, 3.60 ERA) is getting the start for the visiting Marlins. The southpaw Smith recorded 88 strikeouts in 77 innings last year with 33 walks while finishing the season 5-6 overall with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
The Braves will put the ball in the hands of lefty Sean Newcomb (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who struck out 160 hitters in 164 innings last year with 81 walks. Newcomb finished the season 12-9 overall with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He made four starts against Miami a year ago and put up a 4-0 record with a 0.75 ERA and 23 strikeouts.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.4 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 2.88, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 6.99 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In five games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.21 and the bullpen’s ERA is 8.27.
The Atlanta hitters have produced 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .279/.399/.448 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the charge for the Braves’ offense this year. Albies is slashing .387/.472/.548 with 12 hits, two RBIs and three runs scored, and Freeman is hitting .407 with 11 hits, three RBIs and five runs.
For the visitors, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 8.06 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.38, along with a K/9 of 10.69.
Marlins hitters have slashed .238/.298/.381 on their way to 3.3 runs scored per game this season, including over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Martin Prado. Castro is slashing .278/.297/.444 with 10 hits, four RBIs and five runs scored, while Prado (.529/.579/.706) has produced nine hits, two RBIs and three runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 1.9 units and are 2-2 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to zero that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 1.0 units and are 1-0 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in one of those games, compared to zero that’ve gone under.
Marlins vs. Braves Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The Braves went 14-5 SU against the Marlins in 2018.
- The Braves’ bullpen managed an ERA of 1.60 against the Marlins last year.
- The Marlins have a team OPS of .679 this season, including an OPS of .766 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .797 overall and their lefty-righty split is nearly identical.
