The Miami Heat (38-40) will travel to the Target Center to clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves (35-43). The Heat opened as 2-point favorites. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, April 5, 2019.
Miami Heat vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Odds
In the Timberwolves’ last game, they narrowly defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 110-108, as 3-point underdogs. The Heat, on the other hand, were topped by the Boston Celtics, 112-102, and were unable to cover as 1-point underdogs. The Minnesota game finished 9.5 points under the projected point total of 227.5, while the Miami game hit the projected point total of 214.
Minnesota dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 7.8 (better than their season average of 10.9) and a free throw rate of 0.186 (matching their season average). Dallas recorded marks of 11.3 and 0.160, respectively, for those same stats. Miami, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.8 (above their season average of 25.1). Karl-Anthony Towns played a key role for Minnesota with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Miami, meanwhile, was led by Hassan Whiteside, who finished with 18 points and 15 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Towns led the Timberwolves to a 113-104 victory. He registered a double-double with 34 points and 18 rebounds. Minnesota covered as a 4-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 217 points, which was over the projected point total of 206.5. Minnesota had a much better turnover percentage (8.3 vs. 15.7). Miami, meanwhile, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (34.7 vs. 32.7).
Just over half of the Heat’s games have finished over the total. Miami heads into the contest with records of 38-40 straight up (SU) and 41-35-2 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Miami, games featuring the Timberwolves have finished over the total 53.8 percent of the time. Moreover, Minnesota owns records of 35-43 SU and 37-41 ATS.
The Heat’s Dwyane Wade has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 17 points,6.0 rebounds,4.8 assists,2.0 steals per game. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins has averaged 23 points,5.8 rebounds,3.2 assists during that same time frame for the Timberwolves.
Miami might have a difficult time creating turnovers. Minnesota ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.1 percent), while Miami forces the 13th-most turnovers (13.5 percent). Additionally, the Heat’s fifth-ranked defense (effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.511) will go head-to-head against the Timberwolves’ 25th-ranked offense (effective field goal percentage of 0.510).
Heat vs. Timberwolves Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat average 32.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (33.5).
- Miami averages 14.3 second chance points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.8).
- The Heat rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.9) while the Timberwolves rank 14th (48.7).
- Minnesota ranks eighth in points off turnovers (17.4 per game) while Miami ranks 21st in points off turnovers allowed (17.1 per game).
- Minnesota ranks 20th in fast break points per game (11.8) while Miami ranks last (9.8).
- The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (23.2) while the Timberwolves rank 28th (26.2).
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Heat rank 11th (7.4).
- Miami averages 46.3 rebounds per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Minnesota ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
- Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.5) while Minnesota ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
- Miami is 21-3 when they allow under 100 points, while Minnesota is 12-0.
- When scoring more than 100 points, the Timberwolves are 34-37 and the Heat are 34-21.
- Miami is 26-12 ATS on the road, while Minnesota is 20-18 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 22 of the Timberwolves’ 38 home games, while 19 of the Heat’s 38 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Miami has 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push, while Minnesota has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 102.2 points per game (3.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (2.3 below their season average).
- The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 1.2 for the season.
