The Denver Nuggets (51-25), 8-point underdogs, will travel to ORACLE Arena to clash with the Golden State Warriors (52-24). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221.5 points and it will air on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 2, 2019.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
The Warriors easily got past the Charlotte Hornets in their last matchup, 137-90, comfortably covering as 11-point favorites. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were beat by the Washington Wizards, 95-90, and failed to cover as 10.5-point underdogs. The Golden State game finished 3 points under the projected point total of 230, while the Denver game finished 42.5 points under the projected point total of 227.5.
The Warriors, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.5, had a solid mark of 32.3 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.722 (above their season average of 0.561). Denver, on the other hand, held Washington to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.7 (below the 21.7 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Golden State rallied around Stephen Curry, who had 25 points, six assists and five rebounds. Nikola Jokic, meanwhile had a good game for Denver, recording 23 points and 14 rebounds.
The Warriors lead the season series two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 227 points, which was under the projected point total of 234.5. Golden State won 122-105, covering as a 7-point favorite. Golden State’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Denver. The Warriors had a rate of 0.643 while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.448. Klay Thompson scored a game-high 39 points.
Of the Nuggets’ 76 games, 44 have finished under the total. Denver comes into the game with records of 51-25 straight up (SU) and 39-37 against the spread (ATS).
Games involving the Warriors also have a slight tendency to finish under the total (52.6 percent). Golden State has a respectable 52-24 SU record, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (32-43-1 ATS).
The high-powered offense of Golden State will go head-to-head against the mid-tier defense of Denver. The Warriors rank first in offensive efficiency, while the Nuggets are 11th in defensive efficiency. The Warriors figure to have the edge on that side of the ball.
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 15.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Warriors rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (52.4) while Golden State ranks 29th (43.0).
- The Warriors average 29.3 assists per game, which ranks first in the league. The Nuggets rank 18th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- Golden State ranks third in fast break points per game (19.1) while Denver ranks 15th (12.5).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while Golden State ranks ninth (44.2).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks per game (6.4) while the Nuggets rank 24th (4.5).
- The Nuggets rank 15th in three pointers allowed per game (32.1) while the Warriors rank 26th (33.7).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.7) while Golden State ranks 22nd (12.5).
- Golden State is 9-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 23-2.
- The Warriors are 52-16 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 48-17.
- Denver is 16-22 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 14-23-1 ATS at home.
- In 38 road games, the Nuggets have 24 unders and 14 overs.
- The Warriors have 23 unders and 15 overs in 38 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Warriors are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Golden State has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Denver has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 6.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 94.6 points per game (16.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (1.1 below their season average).
