The No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (32-5) will be 2-point favorites in the Elite Eight at Capital One Arena when they challenge the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (31-6). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 150.5 points and action starts at 5:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 31, 2019.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils ATS Odds
The Spartans were victorious over the No. 3 LSU Tigers in the Sweet 16, 80-63, comfortably covering as 6-point favorites. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, beat the No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies,75-73, but were unable to cover as 7-point favorites. The Michigan State game finished 5 points under the projected point total of 148, while the Duke game went 5.5 points over the projected point total of 142.5.
Michigan State played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb turnover percentage of 9.1 (better than their season average of 16.5) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.568 (above their season average of 0.558). For those same stats, LSU had marks of 11.8 and 0.443, respectively. Meanwhile, Duke’s 0.607 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Virginia Tech, who had a rate of 0.476. The Blue Devils’ mark was above their season average of 0.535, while the Hokies’ was below their season average of 0.559. Duke rallied around Tre Jones, who contributed 22 points and eight assists. Aaron Henry had a good game for Michigan State, recording 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
Games including the Spartans have a tendency to go under the total (59.5 percent). Michigan State heads into the game with records of 31-6 straight up (SU) and 26-11 against the spread (ATS).
Games featuring the Blue Devils also tend to go under the O/U total (67.6 percent). Further, Duke owns records of 32-5 SU and 18-19 ATS.
The Spartans’ Xavier Tillman has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 13 points,8.2 rebounds,1.2 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Zion Williamson has averaged 28 points,8.8 rebounds,1.8 steals during that same time frame for the Blue Devils.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the high-octane offense of Duke takes on the top-notch defense of Michigan State. The Blue Devils rank 18th in offensive efficiency, while the Spartans are 20th in defensive efficiency.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils ATS Pick
College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Duke ranks fifth in steals per game (9.2) while Michigan State ranks 237th (5.1).
- The Spartans rank fifth in blocks per game (5.4) while the Blue Devils rank 112th in blocks allowed per game (3.2).
- Duke averages 23.8 three pointers per game, which ranks 101st in the nation. Michigan State ranks 183rd in three pointers allowed per game (22.7).
- The Spartans rank seventh in rebounds per game (40.9) while the Blue Devils rank 187th in rebounds allowed per game (35.6).
- Michigan State ranks third in assists per game (18.7) while Duke ranks 112th in assists allowed per game (12.5).
Bettings Trends:
- The Spartans are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Blue Devils are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Michigan State has 4 unders and 1 over, while Duke has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- During their last five games, the Spartans have scored an average of 71.6 points per game (6.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 58.6 points per game (6.4 below their season average).
- The Blue Devils’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 15.4 for the season.
