Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors ATS Prediction 03/21/19

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The Golden State Warriors (48-22), the NBA’s top scoring team and 11-point favorites, will meet the Indiana Pacers (44-28) at ORACLE Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220.5 points and it will air on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 21, 2019.

Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors ATS Odds

The Warriors hope to maintain momentum after covering the 6-point spread against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last contest, 117-107. The Pacers, meanwhile, were beat by the Los Angeles Clippers, 115-109, and failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The Golden State game went 5 points under the projected point total of 229, while the Indiana game finished 4 points over the projected point total of 220.

Golden State’s 0.588 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Minnesota, who had a mark of 0.455. The Warriors’ mark was above their season average of 0.560, while the Timberwolves’ was below their season average of 0.510. Indiana, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 21.7). Golden State’s Stephen Curry led the way, contributing 36 points and five assists. Meanwhile, Indiana was led by Domantas Sabonis, who contributed 13 points, 16 rebounds and six assists.

In their first matchup this year, Curry led the Warriors to a 132-100 win. He was the game’s leading scorer with 26 points. The two teams combined to score 232 points, which was just over the projected point total of 229, and Golden State covered as a 7-point favorite. One of Golden State’s biggest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 13-16 (81.3 percent), while the Pacers were just 8-10 (80.0 percent).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Pacers are playing, as 43 of their 72 games have ended under the O/U total. Indiana comes into the game with records of 44-28 straight up (SU) and 35-36-1 against the spread (ATS).

Coinciding with Indiana, games including the Warriors have a slight tendency to finish under the total (52.9 percent). Golden State has a solid 48-22 SU record, but they have difficulty covering the spread (29-40-1 ATS).

This matchup pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Golden State ranks first in offensive efficiency and Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency.

Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors Free Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers rank 16th in second chance points per game (13.1) while the Warriors rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
  • Golden State ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (34.5) while Indiana ranks 28th (25.5).
  • The Warriors rank second in fast break points per game (19.3) while the Pacers rank 18th in fast break points allowed per game (13.8).
  • Indiana ranks third in steals per game (8.9) while Golden State ranks 15th (7.6).
  • Indiana ranks 18th in points in the paint per game (48.3) while Golden State ranks 26th (42.9).
  • The Pacers average 19.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Warriors rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
  • The Warriors average 29.2 assists per game, which ranks first in the league. The Pacers rank 12th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
  • Indiana ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while Golden State ranks ninth (44.2).
  • Golden State ranks first in blocks per game (6.4) while Indiana ranks 18th (5.0).
  • Indiana is 23-3 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Golden State is 7-0.
  • The Warriors are 48-15 when they score more than 100 points, while the Pacers are 39-15.
  • Golden State is 12-21-1 ATS at home, while Indiana is 14-21-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 18 of the Pacers’ 36 road games, while 20 of the Warriors’ 34 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Warriors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pacers are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Golden State has 5 unders, while Indiana has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, down from 5.9 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (4.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (1.3 above their season average).