Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons ATS Prediction 03/06/19

Posts AdminArticles, Basketball, NBA

A five-game home winning streak is on the line for the Detroit Pistons (31-31), who will be 5-point favorites when they welcome the Minnesota Timberwolves (30-34) to Little Caesars Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 224 points and it will air on Fox Sports – North at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 6, 2019.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Pistons (2-point underdogs) defeated the Toronto Raptors 112-107, while the Timberwolves (1-point underdog) beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 131-120. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Detroit game went 2 points over the projected point total of 217, while the Minnesota game finished 9.5 points over the projected point total of 241.5.

Minnesota dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a solid free throw rate of 0.292 (above their season average of 0.214) and a turnover percentage of 7.9 (better than their season average of 11.0). For those same stats, Oklahoma City was 0.191 and 10.0, respectively. Meanwhile, Detroit’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Toronto. The Pistons had a rate of 0.233 (above their season average of 0.196), while the Raptors posted a mark of 0.198. Andre Drummond had a good game for Detroit, recording 15 points and 17 rebounds. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns played a key role for Minnesota with 41 points and 14 rebounds.

In their first matchup this year, Blake Griffin led the Pistons to a 129-123 win. He was the game’s leading scorer with 34 points. The two teams combined to score 252 points, which was well over the projected point total of 216.5, and Detroit covered as a 6-point underdog. Detroit made 20 of its 48 three pointers (41.7 percent). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (5.7 vs. 10.9).

Vegas is known to set the total low when the Timberwolves are involved, as 35 of their 63 contests have ended over the total. Minnesota heads into the game with records of 30-34 straight up (SU) and 32-31 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Minnesota, Pistons games have a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total (51.6 percent). Moreover, Detroit owns records of 31-31 SU and 30-31-1 ATS.

Detroit figures to have an advantage on the offensive glass in this contest. The Pistons are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.3 percent. Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 26th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.9 percent.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons ATS Pick

NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Pistons rank seventh (7.1).
  • Detroit ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Minnesota ranks 29th (14.9).
  • The Timberwolves rank 18th in fast break points per game (12.0) while the Pistons rank last (9.7).
  • Minnesota ranks 15th in assists per game (24.5) while Detroit ranks 26th (22.4).
  • Minnesota ranks 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while Detroit ranks 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.0).
  • The Pistons rank second in three pointers allowed per game (28.4) while the Timberwolves rank 22nd (33.1).
  • The Timberwolves rank ninth in points in the paint per game (50.1) while the Pistons rank 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.8).
  • Detroit averages 45.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Minnesota ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.2).
  • Minnesota ranks 12th in blocks per game (5.2) while Detroit ranks 26th (3.9).
  • When allowing under 100 points, Detroit is 10-2 and Minnesota is 10-0.
  • When reaching 100 points, the Pistons are 28-20 and the Timberwolves are 29-28.
  • Minnesota is 15-18 ATS on the road, while Detroit is 15-16-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 18 of the Timberwolves’ 33 road games, while 17 of the Pistons’ 32 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Minnesota and Detroit have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Pistons are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Timberwolves are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (5.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.0 points per game (5.8 below their season average).
  • The Timberwolves’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 0.0 for the season.