The Denver Nuggets (36-15) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-26) battle at Target Center. The Nuggets are a 1-point favorite and will try to prolong their five-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 221 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 2, 2019.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds
The Nuggets were victorious over the Houston Rockets in their last outing, 136-122, despite being 9-point underdogs. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, topped the Memphis Grizzlies,99-97, but failed to cover as 3-point favorites. The Denver game finished 31.5 points over the projected point total of 226.5, while the Minnesota game finished 10.5 points under the projected point total of 206.5.
Denver played a perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.244 (above their season average of 0.181) and a turnover percentage of 8.0 (better than their season average of 11.6). For those same stats, Houston was 0.188 and 9.6, respectively. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Memphis. The Timberwolves had a rate of 8.7 (better than their season average of 11.1), while the Grizzlies posted a mark of 15.7 (above their season average of 12.7). Minnesota’s Jerryd Bayless had a solid performance, putting up 19 points, 12 assists and seven rebounds. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic fueled Denver with 31 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists.
In their first matchup this season, Paul Millsap led the Nuggets to a 103-101 win. He scored a game-high 25 points. Denver covered as a 1-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 204 points, which was well under the projected point total of 219.5. The Nuggets’ 12.4 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Timberwolves, who had a rate of 15.8.
It’s tough to find a trend for Nuggets games in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Denver holds records of 36-15 straight up (SU) and 27-23 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Timberwolves’ 51 games, 26 have finished over the total. Additionally, Minnesota owns records of 25-26 SU and 26-25 ATS.
The Nuggets’ Malik Beasley has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 15 points per game. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins has averaged 21 points,7.6 rebounds,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Timberwolves.
Denver may have a tough time creating turnovers. Minnesota ranks third in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Denver forces the 17th-most turnovers (13.1 percent). Also, the Nuggets, who rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.7 percent), will square off against the Timberwolves, who rank 26th in defensive rebounding percentage (74.9 percent).
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (32.9).
- Denver ranks third in assists per game (27.4) while Minnesota ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (25.7).
- The Timberwolves rank 14th in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nuggets rank 26th (4.5).
- Denver ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Minnesota ranks 16th (13.9).
- Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Denver ranks eighth (7.3).
- The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.5) while the Timberwolves rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (53.1) while the Timberwolves rank 15th (48.1).
- Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while Minnesota ranks sixth (15.2).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Minnesota ranks 19th (45.3).
- In games where they allow less than 100 points, Denver is 17-1 and Minnesota is 10-0.
- When scoring over 100 points, the Nuggets are 34-10 and the Timberwolves are 24-20.
- Minnesota is 14-12 ATS at home, while Denver is 9-15 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 15 of the Timberwolves’ 26 home games, while 14 of the Nuggets’ 24 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Minnesota has 4 unders and 1 over, while Denver has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.2, up from 0.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 118.8 points per game (6.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.6 points per game (2.5 below their season average).
