The league’s top shooting defense will be a 6.5-point favorite on the road at Little Caesars Arena, when the Milwaukee Bucks (35-13) challenge the Detroit Pistons (21-27). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 29, 2019.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons ATS Odds
Both teams did not cover as underdogs in their last game. The Pistons (4.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Dallas Mavericks, 106-101, while the Bucks (1.5-point underdogs) fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 118-112. The Detroit game finished 0.5 points under the projected point total of 207.5, while the Milwaukee game went 4.5 points under the projected point total of 234.5.
Milwaukee had a free throw rate of 0.209 (above their season average of 0.193) while Detroit had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.7 vs. 21.4). Detroit was led by Andre Drummond, who finished with 23 points and 15 rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo, meanwhile played well for Milwaukee, putting up 27 points and 18 rebounds.
In their three matchups this year, the Bucks have won all three. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 219 points, just under the projected point total of 220. Milwaukee won 121-98, covering as a 10-point favorite. Milwaukee’s 0.658 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Detroit, who had a rate of 0.446. In the loss, Griffin led all scorers with 29 points.
A little over half of the Bucks’ games have finished under the total. Milwaukee comes into the contest with records of 35-13 straight up (SU) and 26-20-2 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas tends to set the total high when the Pistons are involved, as 28 of their 48 games have finished under the O/U total. Additionally, Detroit owns records of 21-27 SU and 22-25-1 ATS.
The inefficient offense of Detroit (25th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 103.8) will go head-to-head against the elite defense of Milwaukee (first in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 102.4). The Bucks should have the advantage on that end of the court. Also, the Bucks rank 25th in offensive rebounding percentage (20.7 percent), while the Pistons rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.7 percent).
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks rank second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Pistons rank ninth (7.3).
- Detroit ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (27.9) while Milwaukee ranks last (35.7).
- The Bucks rank sixth in fast break points per game (17.1) while the Pistons rank 28th (9.8).
- Milwaukee ranks fifth in assists per game (26.2) while Detroit ranks 26th (22.0).
- Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (49.0) while Detroit ranks 12th (45.6).
- The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.0) while the Pistons rank 28th (3.7).
- The Bucks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while the Pistons rank 17th (17.1).
- Detroit ranks 22nd in second chance points per game (12.9) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (11.6).
- Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.2) while Detroit ranks 26th (51.3).
- In games where they allow less than 100 points, Milwaukee is 11-1 and Detroit is 6-2.
- When scoring more than 100 points, the Bucks are 35-10 and the Pistons are 19-17.
- Detroit is 10-13-1 ATS at home, while Milwaukee is 10-10-2 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 13 of the Bucks’ 22 road games, while 13 of the Pistons’ 24 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Pistons are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 1-3-1.
- In their last five games, Detroit has 5 unders, while Milwaukee has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 97.0 points per game (8.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 99.4 points per game (9.1 below their season average).
- The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, down from 9.6 for the season.
