Miami Heat at New York Knicks ATS Prediction 01/27/19

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The New York Knicks (10-37) welcome the Miami Heat (23-24) to Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are 5.5-point underdogs and will try to snap their eight-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 212 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 27, 2019.

Miami Heat at New York Knicks Betting Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Heat (8.5-point favorites) beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 100-94, while the Knicks (8.5-point underdogs) fell to the Brooklyn Nets, 109-99. The Miami game went 13.5 points under the projected point total of 207.5, while the New York game finished 13 points under the projected point total of 221.

Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.212 (above their season average of 0.179) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.7 (above their season average of 25.5). For those same stats, Cleveland had marks of 0.118 and 20.0, respectively. New York, meanwhile, forced Brooklyn into a turnover percentage of 15.4 (above the 12.1 mark opponents have averaged against New York this season). Noah Vonleh had a good game for New York with 22 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, Miami received a boost from Justise Winslow, who contributed 27 points and seven rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Hassan Whiteside led the Heat to a 110-87 win. He registered a double-double with 22 points and 14 rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 197 points, which was well under the projected point total of 218, and Miami covered as an 8-point favorite. Miami had a much better free throw rate (0.232 vs. 0.099). New York, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (17.5 vs. 10.3).

A little over half of the Heat’s games have finished over the total. Miami comes into the contest with records of 23-24 straight up (SU) and 24-22-1 against the spread (ATS).

Coinciding with Miami, just over half of Knicks games have finished over the O/U total. Additionally, New York is 10-37 SU and 22-24-1 ATS.

New York might have difficulty finding the bottom of the net as they clash against one of the league’s best defenses. Miami ranks seventh in defensive efficiency while the Knicks rank 26th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Heat are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 percent). The Knicks, meanwhile, rank 27th at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.7 percent.

Heat vs. Knicks Betting Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Knicks average 15.8 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 19th in the league. The Heat rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
  • Miami ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.9) while New York ranks 29th (52.8).
  • The Heat rank ninth in rebounds per game (46.6) while the Knicks rank 29th in rebounds allowed per game (48.2).
  • Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.8) while New York ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (14.4).
  • New York ranks 20th in fast break points per game (11.5) while Miami ranks 26th (9.9).
  • The Heat average 5.9 blocks per game, which ranks third in the league. The Knicks rank 28th in blocks allowed per game (6.1).
  • The Heat rank 12th in three pointers attempted per game (32.9) while the Knicks rank 19th in three pointers allowed per game (32.4).
  • Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (22.4) while New York ranks 27th (25.7).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, New York is 2-0 and Miami is 14-2.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 21-13 and the Knicks are 10-27.
  • New York is 8-11-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 14-9 ATS on the road.
  • Of the Heat’s 23 road games, they have 11 overs, 11 unders and 1 push.
  • In 20 home games, the Knicks have 11 unders and 9 overs.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and New York have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
  • The Knicks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • The Knicks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.2, down from 8.5 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 101.6 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.6 points per game (3.1 below their season average).