Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction 01/11/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (19-22) will travel to the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves (20-21). The Mavericks opened as 5-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points and it gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 11, 2019.

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

In the Timberwolves’ previous game, they edged the Oklahoma City Thunder, 119-117, as 8.5-point underdogs. The Mavericks, meanwhile, beat the Phoenix Suns, 104-94, but were unable to cover as 11-point favorites. The Minnesota game finished 7 points over the projected point total of 229, while the Dallas game finished 19.5 points under the projected point total of 217.5.

Dallas played a nearly perfect game. They had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.457 (above their season average of 0.235) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.1 (below their season average of 23.6). For those same stats, Phoenix put up marks of 0.179 and 16.7, respectively. Minnesota, on the other hand, played a nearly perfect game. They had a great turnover percentage of 8.5 (better than their season average of 11.2) and a free throw rate of 0.356 (above their season average of 0.213). Oklahoma City was 14.2 and 0.224, respectively, for those same stats. Andrew Wiggins led the way for Minnesota, putting up 40 points and 10 rebounds. Dallas was lifted by Luka Doncic, who contributed 30 points, six rebounds and five assists.

In their first matchup this year, DeAndre Jordan led the Mavericks to a 140-136 victory. He registered a double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds. Dallas covered as a 2-point favorite and the two teams combined for 276 points, which was well over the projected point total of 220.5. Dallas’ rebounding was their biggest strength. The Mavericks had more offensive rebounds (15 vs. six) and total rebounds (42 vs. 33).

Of the Mavericks’ 41 games, 21 have finished under the projected point total. Dallas comes into the game with records of 19-22 straight up (SU) and 24-17 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Dallas, a little over half of Timberwolves games have finished over the projected point total. Additionally, Minnesota is 20-21 SU and 22-19 ATS.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Wiggins have played at a high level over the last five games for Minnesota. Towns has averaged 29 points,16.0 rebounds,5.0 assists,3.4 blocks,1.2 steals, while Wiggins has recorded 22 points,3.2 assists a game during that span.

Dallas may struggle to create turnovers. Minnesota ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Dallas forces the 15th-most turnovers (13.5 percent).

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves Odds Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Timberwolves rank 13th in assists per game (24.6) while the Mavericks rank 20th in assists allowed per game (24.5).
  • Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Dallas ranks 27th (8.9).
  • The Mavericks average 46.1 rebounds per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
  • Dallas ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Minnesota ranks 17th (5.2).
  • Dallas averages 13.5 second chance points per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (14.3).
  • The Mavericks average 34.3 three pointers per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (32.9).
  • The Timberwolves rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Mavericks rank 15th (17.0).
  • Minnesota averages 13.6 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (17.0).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Minnesota is 8-0 and Dallas is 6-2.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Mavericks are 19-18 and the Timberwolves are 20-15.
  • Minnesota is 13-7 ATS at home, while Dallas is 10-11 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 11 of the Timberwolves’ 20 home games, while 10 of the Mavericks’ 21 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Mavericks are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Minnesota has 4 overs and 1 under, while Dallas has 5 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 112.6 points per game (1.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (2.2 below their season average).
  • The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.2, up from 0.4 for the season.