In the final week of the NFL regular season, the Los Angeles Rams (-9) are ready to host their NFC West nemesis San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. This late afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET and FOX has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
In this Sunday NFC matchup, Los Angeles is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 9 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to lay down $400 to win $100 back on the Rams (-400). The 49ers are getting +300 moneyline odds. This NFC matchup should provide several decent in-game betting possibilities, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.
The sharp action is siding with the 49ers, as the opening line was -11. The game’s O/U has yet to change after it was set initially at 50.5.
The disappointing 49ers have lost 7.7 units so far in 2018 and are 5-10 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 8-7.
The Rams have gained 0.3 units this season. The team is 6-7-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-8-1.
The 49ers have gone just 4-11 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against NFC West opponents. The Rams are 12-3 SU overall and 5-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Niners fell to Chicago 14-9 in a Week 16 game where Nick Mullens completed 22-of-38 passes for 241 yards and one interception. Jeff Wilson Jr. (just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while George Kittle (seven receptions, 74 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (four catches, 73 yards) manned the receiving duties.
The Los Angeles Rams just earned a lopsided 31-9 win over Arizona in Week 16. The team’s defense let the Cardinals rush for 104 yards on 18 attempts. David Johnson was a bright spot in the defeat for Arizona, recording 35 rushing yards on 10 attempts, along with 32 yards on one catch. For Los Angeles, Jared Goff completed 19-of-24 passes for 216 yards and one touchdown. C.J. Anderson (167 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) and John Kelly (40 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Robert Woods (six receptions, 89 yards, one TD) and Gerald Everett (five catches, 28 yards) led the receiving corps.
Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. San Francisco’s run the ball on 44.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Los Angeles has an overall rush percentage of 43.6. The 49ers have produced 118.3 rush yards per game (including 104.2 per game against West opponents) and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Rams are averaging 138.4 rushing yards per game (161.8 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Rams ought to hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has given up only 33 sacks while their D-line has logged 38 sacks. The 49ers O-line has given up 45 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just 37 times.
The Niners offense has averaged 264.3 yards in the air overall (279.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has 23 passing TDs so far. The Rams have produced 300.5 pass yards per contest (282 in the NFC) and have 28 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Francisco has allowed opponents to run for an average of 110.6 yards and throw for 249.1 yards per game. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 254.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 122.0 yards per game on the ground. The Rams are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.32 to opposing QBs, while the 49ers have given up a 7.35 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mullens is up to 1,720 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 63 percent of his 212 attempts with nine passing scores and seven interceptions. Mullens has a 6.70 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.54 over the last two outings.
We expect the San Francisco offense to mix it up in this one. George Kittle, Matt Breida and Dante Pettis have combined to account for 351 total yards over the last couple of outings.
For the home team, Jared Goff has connected on 314-of-482 passes for 4,150 yards, 28 TDs and 11 INTs. Goff’s ANY/A stands at 7.81 for the year and 6.07 over his past two games.
We expect the Rams to control the game’s clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Robert Woods (1,121 receiving yards, six receiving TDs this season), C.J. Anderson (271 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) and Todd Gurley II (1,251 rush yards, 17 rush TDs, 580 receiving yards, four TDs) have really been key factors in the Los Angeles offense.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Free Betting Pick
SU Winner: 49ers, ATS Winner: 49ers, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last game was 44. The under cashed in the team’s 14-9 loss to Chicago.
- San Francisco has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its past three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
- Los Angeles has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.9 over its last two.
- Los Angeles has lost seven fumbles this season while San Francisco has lost 11.
- Over its last three contests, San Francisco is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Los Angeles’ last outing was set at 44. The under cashed in the 31-9 victory over Arizona.
- Over its last three games, Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The 49ers offense has registered 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rams have accounted for nine such plays.
- Both defenses have allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards. The San Francisco defense has given up 18 pass plays of 30+ yards while Los Angeles has given up 21 such plays.
- The San Francisco offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Los Angeles has created 14 such runs.
- The 49ers defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Rams have given up 14 such runs.
- The Los Angeles defense has tallied 38 sacks on the year while San Francisco has 37.
