In the final iteration of the 2018 regular season, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) will be taking on the Houston Texans (-8) at NRG Stadium. Interested parties are able to catch the action live on CBS and this AFC South game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is a big road underdog in this AFC game and is currently receiving 8 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +260 moneyline odds while the Texans are -330. If one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages it will produce a nice betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 40.5 points.
The game’s over/under hasn’t changed after being initially established at 40.5. Having said that, the line opened at -9 so early action has been swaying toward the Jaguars.
The disappointing Jaguars are down 11.2 units so far in 2018 and 5-8-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-9.
The Texans have gained 2.6 units this season. The team is 6-6-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-8.
The Jaguars are an ugly 5-10 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 10-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Jags enter after a 17-7 win over Miami in Week 16. the Jaguars completed 17-of-24 passes for 145 yards. Cody Kessler went 12-for-17 for 106 yards while Blake Bortles completed five-of-six for 39 yards. Leonard Fournette (just 43 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Dede Westbrook (seven receptions, 45 yards) and Donte Moncrief (four catches, 43 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 16, Philadelphia knocked off this Houston crew by a score of 32-30. The Texans defensive secondary allowed the Eagles to air it out for 471 yards and four touchdowns. Nelson Agholor had a productive outing for Philadelphia, posting 116 yards on five catches. For Houston, Deshaun Watson completed 29-of-40 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns. Watson (49 yards on eight rush attempts, two TDs) handled the running game while DeAndre Hopkins (nine receptions, 104 yards) and DeAndre Carter (six catches, 61 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Jacksonville’s run the ball on 44.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has a rush percentage of 48.2 percent. The Jaguars have run for 112.9 yards per game (including 77.4 per game versus South opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Texans are averaging 125.8 rush yards per game (155.6 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
The Jags offensive scheme has tallied 221.6 yards/contest in the air overall (217.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Texans have put up 262.1 pass yards per contest (260 in the AFC) and have 26 total pass scores.
Jacksonville should possess an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 115.7 yards and pass for 208.0 yards per game. The Houston D has allowed 291.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 86.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Jags are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.56 to opponents, while the Texans have allowed a 6.61 ANY/A.
Offensively, Kessler is up to 652 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 76-of-114 attempts with two passing scores and one interception. He’s got a 4.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 1.33 over the past two outings.
We expect the Jacksonville offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook and Cody Kessler have combined to account for 300 yards from scrimmage over the last two outings.
Deshaun Watson has completed 298-of-442 passes for 3,637 yards, 24 TDs and nine INTs for Houston. His ANY/A sits at 6.93 for the year and 8.05 over his last two outings.
We expect Watson to spread the ball around early and often in this one. DeAndre Hopkins (1,255 receiving yards and nine receiving TDs this season), DeAndre Carter (128 receiving yards), and Demaryius Thomas (618 receiving yards, five TDs) have collectively recorded 486 receiving yards and two scores over the last couple of games, recording 23, 10, and 13 targets respectively over that stretch.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Texans, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for Jacksonville’s last game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-7 victory over Miami.
- Jacksonville, as a team, has averaged 4.6 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.1 over its last two.
- Houston has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.0 over its last two.
- The Houston offense has lost six fumbles this season while Jacksonville has lost 15.
- Over its last three contests, Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Houston’s last game was set at 47. The over cashed in that 32-30 loss to Philadelphia.
- In its last three contests, Houston is 0-1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Jaguars offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Texans have put up seven such plays.
- The Jacksonville defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Houston has given up 12 such plays.
- The Jacksonville offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Houston has created eight such runs.
- The Jaguars defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Texans have given up three such runs.
- The Houston defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 40 times this season. Jacksonville has produced just 31 sacks.
