New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction 12/26/18

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The Dallas Mavericks (15-17) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (15-19) to American Airlines Center. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites and will attempt to snap their six-game losing streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 26, 2018.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds

Both teams fell in their last matchup. The Pelicans (1-point favorites) were defeated by the Sacramento Kings, 122-117, while the Mavericks (7-point underdogs) fell to the Portland Trail Blazers, 121-118. Both games went over their projected point totals. The New Orleans game finished 1 point over the projected point total of 238, while the Dallas game finished 23.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5.

New Orleans had a better offensive rebounding percentage (24.0 vs. 20.7) while Dallas did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (20-28; 71.4 percent). Dallas received a boost from Luka Doncic, who had 23 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Anthony Davis had a good game for New Orleans, putting up 26 points and 17 rebounds.

In their first matchup this season, Julius Randle led the Pelicans to a 132-106 victory. He notched a double-double with 27 points and 18 rebounds. The two teams combined for 238 points, which was over the projected point total of 226, and New Orleans covered as a 6-point favorite. The Pelicans’ 9.8 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Mavericks, who had a rate of 15.2.

A little over half of the Pelicans’ games have finished over the total. New Orleans heads into the game with records of 15-19 straight up (SU) and 15-19 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Mavericks’ 32 games, 18 have finished over the projected point total. Further, Dallas is 15-17 SU and 19-13 ATS.

DeAndre Jordan and Doncic have played well over the last five games for Dallas. Jordan has averaged 19 rebounds,11.2 points,1.2 steals, while Doncic has recorded 23 points,7.4 assists,1.6 steals a game during that span.

The physical Dallas offense might be living from the free throw line in this meeting. The Mavericks rank third in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.234, while New Orleans ranks 14th in FTA rate allowed (0.195).

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Pelicans rank 2 in second chance points per game (15.529411764705882) while the Mavericks rank 9 (14.09375).
  • New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (27.2) while Dallas ranks 21st (22.9).
  • The Mavericks average 33.7 three pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Pelicans rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (33.0).
  • New Orleans ranks 14th in fast-break points per game (13.5) while Dallas ranks 29th in fast-break points allowed per game (16.6).
  • Dallas ranks 4 in rebounds allowed per game (43.0625) while New Orleans ranks 14 (44.470588235294116).
  • The Pelicans rank first in points in the paint per game (57.7) while the Mavericks rank 19th (47.0).
  • The Mavericks average 7.75 steals per game, which ranks 16 in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 26 in steals allowed per game (8.823529411764707).
  • Dallas ranks 13 in points off turnovers per game (17.1875) while New Orleans ranks 19 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.352941176470587).
  • New Orleans ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.7) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.3).
  • Dallas is 4-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while New Orleans is 2-0.
  • The Pelicans are 15-17 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 15-15.
  • Dallas is 12-4 ATS at home, while New Orleans is 7-11 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 8 of the Mavericks’ 16 home games, while 9 of the Pelicans’ 18 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, New Orleans and Dallas are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Pelicans have 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games, while the Mavericks have 5 overs
  • During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 110.0 points per game (6.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (0.8 below their season average).
  • The Mavericks have been outscored by an average of 5.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has defeated opponents by an average of 0.7 points.