The Miami Heat (15-16), 2.5-point underdogs, will be at the Amway Center to clash against the Orlando Magic (14-17) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 203 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 23, 2018.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic ATS Odds
The last time the Heat played, they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks, 94-87, despite being 3-point underdogs. The Magic, on the other hand, were beaten by the Chicago Bulls, 90-80, and were not able to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The Miami game went 29 points under the projected point total of 210, while the Orlando game went 31.5 points under the projected point total of 201.5.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.8 (below their season average of 26.7) and a turnover percentage of 10.8 (better than their season average of 12.8). For those same stats, Milwaukee was 11.8 and 14.7, respectively. Orlando, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (24.1 vs. 20.9). Nikola Vucevic played well for Orlando with 19 points and 19 rebounds. Miami was lifted by Hassan Whiteside, who put up 11 points and 13 rebounds.
The Magic have won both matchups against the Heat this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined to put up 195 points, which was under the projected point total of 208. Orlando won 105-90, covering as a 3-point underdog. Orlando’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Miami. The Magic had a rate of 0.174, while the Heat posted a mark of 0.022. Aaron Gordon put up a double-double in the victory with 20 points and 13 rebounds.
Of the Heat’s 30 games that accepted bets, 15 have finished over the projected point total. Miami holds records of 15-16 straight up (SU) and 16-14 against the spread (ATS).
Magic games have typically gone under the O/U total (64.5 percent). Additionally, Orlando is 14-17 SU and 16-13-2 ATS.
The offense of Orlando (27th in the league with an offensive efficiency of 102.9) will clash against the elite defense of Miami (ninth in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 105.1). The Heat figure to have the edge on that end of the court.
Heat vs. Magic Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 3 in assists allowed per game (21.967741935483872) while the Magic rank 11 (23.419354838709676).
- Orlando ranks sixth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6) while Miami ranks 28th (18.4).
- The Magic rank ninth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Heat rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
- Orlando ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (29.1) while Miami ranks 16th (31.5).
- Miami ranks 20 in points in the paint per game (46.58064516129032) while Orlando ranks 29 (40.70967741935484).
- The Heat rank third in rebounds per game (48.2) while the Magic rank 25th (42.4).
- The Magic rank 2 in steals allowed per game (6.903225806451613) while the Heat rank 11 (7.483870967741936).
- Miami is 26 in the league with 10.387096774193548 fast break points per game while Orlando is 28 with 10.032258064516128 fast break points per game.
- Miami ranks first in second chance points per game (15.7) while Orlando ranks 21st (12.7).
- Orlando is 6-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 9-1.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Heat are 13-11 and the Magic are 10-6.
- Miami is 10-5 ATS on the road, while Orlando is 6-9 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 9 of the Magic’s 15 home games, while 8 of the Heat’s 15 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Orlando have both had 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 1-3-1.
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.8, up from 0.6 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 87.8 points per game (15.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.0 points per game (6.9 below their season average).
