The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are ready to do battle on the turf at Gillette Stadium. This AFC East showdown gets underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS.
Week 16 Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
In this Sunday AFC game, New England is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 13 points. The Bills are also receiving +475 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -725. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points. If the favorites get behind early on, it’ll likely result in a decent live betting scenario.
Odds have shifted slightly from where they first opened. The opening line was -13 and the game’s O/U was placed originally at 45.5.
The Bills are 5-9 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-8.
The Patriots have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 8-6 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-9.
The Bills are just 5-9 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 9-5 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Bills enter after a 14-13 win over Detroit last weekTheir defense allowed the Lions to run for 105 yards on 26 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Kenny Golladay had a productive day for the Lions in that one with 146 yards on seven catches. Offensively, Josh Allen completed only 13-of-26 passes for 204 yards and one touchdown. Keith Ford (only 46 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Marcus Murphy (35 yards on 11 carries) led the running attack while Isaiah McKenzie (six receptions, 53 yards) and Robert Foster (four catches, 108 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Back in Week 15, Pittsburgh took care of this New England team by a score of 17-10. The Pats defense let the Steelers rush for 158 yards on 25 attempts. Jaylen Samuels had a good showing, recording 142 rushing yards on 19 attempts for Pittsburgh. For New England, Tom Brady completed 25-of-36 passes for 279 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (59 yards on 13 rush attempts) mounted the running game as Julian Edelman (seven receptions, 90 yards) and James White (five catches, 25 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Buffalo has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 43.7 percent. The Bills have produced 124.7 rush yards per game (including 158.0 per game against East opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are putting up 116.6 rush yards per game (135.8 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Bills ought to have an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Patriots have registered 4.1 yards per carry and given up 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bills offense has tallied 188.6 yards/contest in the air overall (249.3 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Pats have recorded 287.8 pass yards per outing (310 in the AFC) and have 24 total pass TDs.
Buffalo seems to hold an advantage in both defensive phases. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 104.8 yards and pass for 200.6 yards per game. The New England D has allowed 271.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.2 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.33 to opposing QBs, while the Pats have allowed a 6.10 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Allen has put up 1,427 yards this year, and has completed 53 percent of his 217 attempts with six scores through the air and seven interceptions. Allen has a 4.32 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.80 over the last two games.
Tom Brady has managed to complete 311-of-470 passes for 3,621 yards, 21 TDs and nine INTs for New England. His ANY/A sits at 7.22 for the season and 7.94 across his last two outings.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- New England has lost six fumbles this season while Buffalo has let eight get away.
- The Buffalo defense has 31 sacks on the year while New England has 26.
- As a team, Buffalo has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
- New England has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
- Over its last three games, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous game was set at 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-13 win over Detroit.
- In its last three games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for New England’s last match going into it was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 17-10 defeat to Pittsburgh.
