The NBA’s top scoring team will be 2.5-point underdogs on the road at TD Garden, when the Milwaukee Bucks (21-9) clash with the Boston Celtics (18-12). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 224.5 points and it will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 21, 2018.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics ATS Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Bucks (8.5-point favorites) beat the New Orleans Pelicans, 123-115, while the Celtics (11.5-point favorites) were defeated by the Phoenix Suns, 111-103. The Milwaukee game went 8 points over the projected point total of 230, while the Boston game finished 8.5 points under the projected point total of 222.5.
Milwaukee played a flawless game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.282 (above their season average of 0.186) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.9 (below their season average of 22.3). For those same stats, New Orleans was 0.109 and 15.2, respectively. Boston, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.535 vs. 0.484). Boston was led by Kyrie Irving, who recorded 29 points, 10 assists and five rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a good game for Milwaukee, putting up 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.
In their first matchup this season, Irving led the Celtics to a 117-113 victory. He produced 28 points and 7 assists. The two teams combined to score 230 points, which was over the projected point total of 220.5, and Boston covered as a 2-point favorite. The Celtics’ 10.9 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Bucks, who had a rate of 12.5.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Bucks games, with 16 overs compared to 14 unders. Milwaukee heads into the game with records of 21-9 straight up (SU) and 15-14-1 against the spread (ATS).
Games involving the Celtics have a tendency to go over the total (56.7 percent). Moreover, Boston is 18-12 SU and 15-15 ATS.
Points could be at a premium in this showdown between two of the league’s premier defenses. Boston ranks third in defensive efficiency (101.3) and Milwaukee is fourth (103.3). It will also be a battle of conflicting paces as the aggressively-paced Bucks rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Celtics rank 21st.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Odds Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks rank 1 in fast break points allowed per game (9.3) while the Celtics rank 6 (11.266666666666667).
- Boston ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (36.6) while Milwaukee ranks last in three pointers allowed per game (36.1).
- The Celtics rank fourth in assists allowed per game (22.1) while the Bucks rank 20th (24.5).
- Boston ranks 15th in second chance points per game (13.2) while Milwaukee ranks 25th (12.1).
- Milwaukee ranks 5 in blocks per game (5.8) while Boston ranks 11 (5.466666666666667).
- The Bucks rank third in points in the paint per game (54.7) while the Celtics rank 28th (41.8).
- The Celtics rank 3 in points off turnovers per game (19.3) while the Bucks rank 10 (17.766666666666666).
- Milwaukee ranks 3 in steals allowed per game (6.866666666666667) while Boston ranks 7 (7.1).
- Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (49.8) while Boston ranks 19th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
- Milwaukee is 6-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Boston is 7-2.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Celtics are 18-9 and the Bucks are 21-7.
- Milwaukee is 5-7-1 ATS on the road, while Boston is 8-5 ATS at home.
- The Bucks have 7 unders and 6 overs in 13 road games.
- The Celtics have 7 overs and 6 unders in 13 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Celtics are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 2-2-1.
- In their last five games, Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Milwaukee has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 115.8 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.4 points per game (7.1 above their season average).
- The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.6, down from 8.8 for the season.
