In the DXL Frisco Bowl, the Ohio Bobcats (-3) are favorites as they prepare to battle the San Diego State Aztecs. The game is scheduled to kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Ohio Bobcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 3 points in this matchup. The Aztecs are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Bobcats are -155. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points. If the favorite starts trailing early, it’ll likely produce a worthy live betting scenario.
The hapless Aztecs are 3-9 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 10.2 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 4-8.
The Bobcats have gained 1.0 unit this season. The team is 7-5 ATS and the over’s hit in seven of its games.
The Aztecs are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bobcats are 8-4 SU.
San Diego State comes into this matchup on a two-game unbeaten streak while Ohio has lost each of its last three. The Aztecs are most-recently on the rebound after a narrow 31-30 defeat to Hawaii on November 24 in which Christian Chapman completed only nine passes on 19 attempts for 149 yards and one touchdown. Juwan Washington (158 rushing yards on 31 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack. Kahale Warring (four receptions, 35 yards) and Parker Houston (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Ohio just put together a 49-28 win over Akron. Nathan Rourke completed five-of-14 passes for 87 yards and one interception. Rourke (86 rushing yards on 18 attempts, four TDs) and Maleek Irons (126 yards on 18 carries) handled the running game as Papi White (three receptions, 63 yards) and A.J. Ouellette (one catch, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. San Diego State’s run the ball on 62.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Ohio has a rush percentage of 64.2. The Aztecs have rushed for 162.4 yards per game and have 16 scores on the ground this year. The Bobcats are putting up 261.9 rushing yards per game and have 38 total rush TDs.
If 2018 results are any indication, then it seems like the Bobcats ought to own an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded only 19 sacks while their D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Aztecs offensive line has given up 30 sacks and their defense has recorded only 24 sacks.
The Aztecs offensive scheme has averaged 191.6 yards in the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Bobcats have recorded 208.7 pass yards per contest and have 24 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Diego State should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 94.5 rush yards and 232.9 pass yards per game. The Ohio D has given up 263.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 136.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Aztecs have given up an ANY/A of 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats are yielding an ANY/A of 6.79.
Offensively, Chapman is up to 648 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 46-of-74 attempts with three scores through the air and one interception. Chapman’s got a 7.11 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.52 over the past two games.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from San Diego State in this one. Fred Trevillion (409 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Juwan Washington (832 rush yards, 10 rush TDs) and Kahale Warring (349 receiving yards, three TDs) have all played significant roles of late.
In the other huddle, Nathan Rourke has connected on 137-of-226 passes for 2,019 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs. Rourke’s ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the year and 5.77 over his last two games.
We expect the Bobcats to control the game’s pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Nathan Rourke (zero receiving yards this season) has chipped in lately, but A.J. Ouellette (946 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 163 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Maleek Irons (739 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) have really been focal points in the Bobcats’ recent offensive strategies.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Ohio Bobcats Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Ohio, ATS Winner: Ohio, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The San Diego State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 24 times this year. Ohio has registered 22 sacks.
- Both offenses have lost 10 fumbles this season.
- The Aztecs offense has recorded five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bobcats have put up seven such plays.
- The San Diego State defense has allowed 14 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Ohio has given up 12 such plays.
- The San Diego State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Ohio has created 31 such runs.
- The Aztecs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bobcats have given up 11 such runs.
- San Diego State has lost five of its last six games SU, with an eight-point victory over New Mexico on November 3rd representing the only win over that stretch.
- Ohio has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -2-point defeat to Miami (OH) on November 7th accounting for the only loss over that span.
- San Diego State, as a team, has produced 3.6 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Ohio has averaged 7.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 7.6 over its last two.
