The No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) are considerable favorites as they prepare to battle the No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship Game. FOX will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 14 points in this Big 10 game. The Wildcats are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Buckeyes are -735. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 61 points, and if one team finds paydirt early on, it will likely result in a solid live betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are siding with both the Buckeyes and the over. The opening line was originally -13 while the total was initially set at only 59.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Wildcats have gained 9.9 units while the Buckeyes are up 1.4 units.
The Wildcats are 8-4 straight up (SU), including 8-1 SU against conference opponents. The Buckeyes are 11-1 SU overall and are also 8-1 SU in conference play.
The Wildcats just notched a 24-16 victory over Illinois last week. Clayton Thorson completed 12 passes for only 110 yards and two touchdowns. Isaiah Bowser (166 yards on 18 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Riley Lees (three receptions, 25 yards, one TD) and Kyric McGowan (one catch, nine yards) shared the receiving duties.
Ohio State just picked up a 62-39 win over Michigan. The defense let the Wolverines rush for 161 yards on 40 attempts, including two rush TDs. Nico Collins was a bright spot in the loss for Michigan, recording 91 yards and two touchdowns on four catches. For Ohio State, Dwayne Haskins completed 20-of-31 passes for 396 yards and six touchdowns. Mike Weber (96 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and J.K. Dobbins (46 yards on 12 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Parris Campbell (six receptions, 192 yards, two TDs) and K.J. Hill (four catches, 51 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar (50-50) run-pass ratio on the season. The Wildcats have rushed for 114.8 yards/game (including 120.4 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 22 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Buckeyes are putting up 181.4 rush yards per game (163.2 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Buckeyes may be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed only 16 sacks while their D-line has registered 34 sacks. The Wildcats offensive line has given up 29 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 17 times.
The Wildcats offensive scheme has averaged 237.0 yards through the air overall (224.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Buckeyes have recorded a ridiculous 362.5 pass yards per contest (360 against Big 10 foes) and have 43 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Northwestern has let opponents rush for an average of 134.7 yards and pass for 238.0 yards per game. The Ohio State defense has allowed 237.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.3 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Wildcats have given up an ANY/A of 6.03 to opposing QBs, while the Buckeyes are allowing an ANY/A of 5.99.
Offensively, Thorson has put up 2,445 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 236-of-395 attempts with 14 passing scores and 12 interceptions. Thorson has a 4.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.24 over the last two games.
For the home team, Dwayne Haskins has completed 286-of-417 passes for 3,676 yards, 39 TDs and six INTs. Haskins’ ANY/A sits at 9.62 for the year and 13.31 over his last two outings.
These two Big 10 adversaries did not get a chance to face each other in 2017.
Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes Free Pick
SU Winner: Ohio State, ATS Winner: Ohio State, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The O/U for Northwestern’s previous game was 57. The under cashed in the team’s 24-16 victory over Illinois.
- Northwestern, as a team, has produced 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.
- Ohio State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its past two.
- Ohio State has lost eight fumbles this season while Northwestern has let two get away.
- Over its last three contests, Northwestern is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Northwestern has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a November 3rd defeat to Notre Dame accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
- The O/U for Ohio State’s last match was set at 51. The over cashed in the 62-39 victory over Michigan.
- Over its last three matchups, Ohio State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Wildcats offense has tallied five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Buckeyes have accounted for 12 such plays.
- The Northwestern defense has allowed six pass plays of 40+ yards, while Ohio State has given up 11 such plays.
- The Northwestern offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Ohio State has created 15 such runs.
- The Wildcats defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have given up 21 such runs.
- The Ohio State defense has tallied double the sack total of Northwestern this year (34 versus 17).
