Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers ATS Prediction

Daniel GimenezBasketball, NBA

The Denver Nuggets (14-7), 2.5-point underdogs, will be at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter to clash with the Portland Trail Blazers (13-8) in a Northwest Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 214.5 points and it will air on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018.

Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Betting Odds

In the Nuggets’ last outing, they dismantled the Los Angeles Lakers, 117-85, easily covering as 3-point favorites. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, defeated the Orlando Magic,115-112, but were unable to cover as 10-point favorites. The Denver game went 17 points under the projected point total of 219, while the Portland game finished 12.5 points over the projected point total of 214.5.

Denver played a flawless game. They had an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 34.0 (above their season average of 27.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.531 (above their season average of 0.522). Los Angeles recorded marks of 15.4 and 0.420, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Portland dominated nearly every facet of their game. They had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 27.7 (above their season average of 26.0) and a free throw rate of 0.259 (above their season average of 0.210). For those same stats, Orlando put up marks of 8.1 and 0.173, respectively. Damian Lillard led the way for Portland, contributing 41 points and eight rebounds. Denver, meanwhile, received a boost from Paul Millsap, who put up 20 points and 11 rebounds.

The Nuggets held the advantage in this series last year, emerging victorious in three out of four games. In the last contest, Denver won 88-82. One of Denver’s biggest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They made 26 trips to the line, while Portland went 18 times. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Vegas tends to place the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 14 of their 21 games have finished under the projected point total. Denver comes into the game with records of 14-7 straight up (SU) and 12-9 against the spread (ATS).

Contrary to Denver, Trail Blazers games have typically finished over the total (57.1 percent). Additionally, Portland owns records of 13-8 SU and 11-10 ATS.

Denver may have trouble getting to the charity stripe in this battle. The Nuggets rank 25th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.181, while Portland ranks second in FTA rate allowed (0.166).

Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Betting Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Trail Blazers rank 12 in three pointers attempted per game (32.666666666666664) while the Nuggets rank 17 in three pointers allowed per game (31.428571428571427).
  • Denver ranks fifth in assists per game (26.5) while Portland ranks 27th (20.6).
  • The Nuggets rank 15th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while the Trail Blazers rank 29th (13.4).
  • Denver ranks fourth in second chance points per game (15.6) while Portland ranks 18th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
  • Denver ranks 15 in fast break points per game (13.142857142857142) while Portland ranks 27 (10.142857142857142).
  • The Nuggets rank eighth in steals per game (8.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (6.1).
  • The Nuggets rank 1 in rebounds allowed per game (41.476190476190474) while the Trail Blazers rank 15 (44.76190476190476).
  • Denver ranks 20 in blocks per game (5) while Portland ranks 24 in blocks allowed per game (6.142857142857143).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (53.5) while Portland ranks 23rd (44.9).
  • Portland is 4-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 9-1.
  • The Nuggets are 14-4 when they score over 100 points, while the Trail Blazers are 13-6.
  • Portland is 7-4 ATS at home, while Denver is 4-5 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 6 of the Trail Blazers’ 11 home games, while 7 of the Nuggets’ 9 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Trail Blazers are 0-5.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 5 unders, while Portland has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 107.0 points per game (3.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.0 points per game (7.3 below their season average).
  • The Trail Blazers have been outscored by an average of 13.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Portland has defeated opponents by an average of 2.0 points.