The Dallas Mavericks (9-9) will be at the Toyota Center to go head-to-head with the Houston Rockets (9-10) in a Southwest Division matchup. Action begins at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 28, 2018, and can be seen on ATTSN Southwest.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets Betting Odds
The Mavericks were victorious over the Boston Celtics in their last game, 113-104, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The Rockets, meanwhile, were beaten by the Washington Wizards, 135-131, and failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 4 points over the projected point total of 213, while the Houston game finished 42.5 points over the projected point total of 223.5.
Dallas played a perfect game. They had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 28.3 (above their season average of 22.6) and a turnover percentage of 14.3 (better than their season average of 14.3). Boston was 23.1 and 15.6, respectively, for those same stats. Houston, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 38.3 (above their season average of 23.9). James Harden had a good outing for Houston, putting up 54 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds. Meanwhile, DeAndre Jordan played a pivotal role for Dallas with 14 points and 13 rebounds.
The Rockets dominated this series last year, winning all four games. In the most recent contest, Houston won 105-82. Houston’s effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Dallas. The Rockets had a rate of 0.565 while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.378. This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Of the Mavericks’ 18 games, 10 have finished over the total. Dallas comes into the game with records of 9-9 straight up (SU) and 12-6 against the spread (ATS).
Games involving the Rockets also have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (57.9 percent). Additionally, Houston owns records of 9-10 SU and 7-12 ATS.
Harden and Clint Capela have played at a high level over the last five games for Houston. Harden has averaged 35 points,8.2 assists,2.0 steals, while Capela has recorded 20 points,14.4 rebounds,3.0 blocks a game during that span.
It could be a sloppy game for the Houston offense. Houston ranks 20th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.1 percent), while the pesky defense of Dallas forces the eighth-most turnovers in the league (14.9 percent). Moreover, the Mavericks are among the NBA’s elite at getting to the line, ranking fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.226). The Rockets, meanhwile, rank 30th at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.244.
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 5 in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Rockets rank 15 (13.368421052631579).
- Dallas ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while Houston ranks 24th (50.5).
- The Rockets rank second in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Mavericks rank 18th (23.9).
- Houston ranks 12th in steals per game (8.1) while Dallas ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (9.3).
- Dallas ranks 17 in rebounds per game (44.611111111111114) while Houston ranks 28 (40.73684210526316).
- The Rockets rank third in fast break points allowed per game (10.8) while the Mavericks rank 21st (14.4).
- The Rockets rank 1 in three pointers attempted per game (41.78947368421053) while the Mavericks rank 12 in three pointers allowed per game (30.38888888888889).
- Dallas ranks 12 in points off turnovers per game (17.27777777777778) while Houston ranks 20 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.526315789473685).
- Houston ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.0) while Dallas ranks 21st (4.7).
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and Houston is 4-2.
- When scoring more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 9-8 and the Rockets are 7-6.
- Houston is 3-5 ATS at home, while Dallas is 4-4 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 5 of the Rockets’ 8 home games, while 4 of the Mavericks’ 8 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Houston has 5 overs.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 110.0 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.4 points per game (10.2 below their season average).
- The Rockets have outscored opponents by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Houston has lost by an average of 1.1 points.
