The Cleveland Browns (+3) aren’t traveling far to take on their AFC North nemesis Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. CBS will televise the action and this early afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
In this Sunday AFC matchup, Cincinnati is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Browns are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Bengals are -150. It appears that there will likely be some decent live betting possibilities for this match, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points.
The game’s total has shifted downward after opening at 48. The original line has remained consistent.
The Browns are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.9 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-5.
The Bengals have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 5-5 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Browns are 3-6-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against AFC North opponents. The Bengals are 5-5 SU overall and 1-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Browns are on the upswing after a 28-16 win over Atlanta on November 11 where their secondary allowed the Falcons to air it out for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Julio Jones had a productive day for the Falcons in that one with 107 yards and a score on seven catches. Offensively, Baker Mayfield completed 17-of-20 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns. Nick Chubb (176 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Duke Johnson Jr. (four receptions, 31 yards, one TD) and Chubb (three catches, 33 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
In Week 11, Baltimore took care of this Cincinnati team by a score of 24-21. The Bengals defensive unit let the Ravens kill the clock by rushing for 265 yards on 54 attempts, including two rush TDs. Lamar Jackson had a good showing, recording 117 rushing yards on 27 attempts for Baltimore. For Cincinnati, Andy Dalton completed 19-of-36 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Mixon (14 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat while Tyler Boyd (four receptions, 71 yards) and Giovani Bernard (four catches, 20 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Cleveland has run the ball on 42.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 36.1 percent. The Browns have produced 133.2 rush yards per game (including 121.0 per game versus North opponents) and have 11 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bengals are logging 90.0 rush yards per game (72.7 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.
Based on the numbers so far, it seems like the Browns could hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has logged 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Bengals have ran for 4.5 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.0 to opponents.
The Browns offense has averaged 245.7 yards in the air overall (239.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bengals have recorded 255.0 pass yards per contest (235 against AFC foes) and have 20 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Cleveland has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 132.1 yards and pass for 302.4 yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has allowed 306.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 153.6 yards per game on the ground. The Browns are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.95 to opponents, while the Bengals have given up a 7.03 ANY/A.
Dalton has completed 204-of-328 passes for 2,313 yards, 19 TDs and eight INTs for Cincinnati. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.38 for the season and 5.02 over his past two games. In the other huddle, Mayfield has amassed 1,687 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 147-of-243 attempts with 11 passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Mayfield’s got a 5.72 ANY/A for the year, although that number sits at 8.53 over the last two outings.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Bengals, ATS Winner: Bengals, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Cleveland’s previous game was set at 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-16 victory over Atlanta.
- Cleveland, as a team, has produced 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.8 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has lost one fumble this season while Cleveland has let three get away.
- Over its last three contests, Cleveland is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Cincinnati’s last match was 44. The over cashed in the 24-21 loss to Baltimore.
- In its last three matches, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Cincinnati has lost five of its last six games SU, with a three-point win over Tampa Bay on October 28th accounting for its only victory over that stretch.
- The Browns offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bengals have accounted for one such play.
- The Cleveland defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Cincinnati has given up eight such plays.
- The Cleveland offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created nine such runs.
- The Browns defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bengals have given up 10 such runs.
- The Cleveland D has 24 sacks on the year while Cincinnati has 23.
