Two clubs that prefer to air it out, the Minnesota Vikings (-3) are set to welcome the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Sunday Night showdown gets going at 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC will showcase the action.
Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
In this Sunday NFC matchup, Minnesota is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Packers are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Vikings are -150. If one team finds paydirt early it’ll create a reasonable live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48 points.
Sharp bettors are hammering both the Packers and the under. This line initially opened at -5 and the game’s O/U was originally 49.5.
The Packers are 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 6-4.
The Vikings are up 2.4 units this season. The team is 5-4-1 ATS and owns an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Packers have gone 4-5-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against NFC North opponents. The Vikings are 5-4-1 SU overall and also 1-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Packers lost to Seattle 27-24 in a Week 11 matchup where the passing attack was sharp, as Aaron Rodgers completed 21 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Jones (40 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Davante Adams (10 receptions, 166 yards) and Jones (five catches, 63 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Back in Week 11, Chicago knocked off this Minnesota crew by a score of 25-20. Kirk Cousins completed 30-of-46 passes for 262 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Dalvin Cook (12 rushing yards on nine attempts) mounted the running game as Stefon Diggs (13 receptions, 126 yards, one TD) and Adam Thielen (seven catches, 66 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Green Bay’s run the ball on 35.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 34.0. The Packers have rushed for 108.8 yards per game (including 88.3 per game against North opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Vikes are totaling 84.7 rushing yards per game (72.7 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
The Packers offense has logged 312.8 yards per contest through the air overall (354.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Vikes have recorded 294.7 pass yards per game (284 in the NFC) and also have 19 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay has allowed 126.1 rush yards and 247.1 pass yards per game. The Minnesota D has given up 248.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 94.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Vikes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.72 to opposing QBs, while the Packers have given up a 6.35 ANY/A.
Rodgers has been more productive than Cousins lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.74for the year and 8.82 over the past two games. Cousins’ ANY/A is 6.61 for the year and 4.59 over his last two games.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Vikings, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Green Bay’s last game going into it was 49. The over cashed in the team’s 27-24 defeat to Seattle.
- Green Bay has produced 5.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.4 over its last two.
- Minnesota has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
- Both teams have lost nine fumbles this season.
- Over its last three matches, Green Bay is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Minnesota’s last outing going into it was 44. The over cashed in the 25-20 defeat to Chicago.
- In its last three contests, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Packers offense has registered 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Vikings have accounted for three such plays.
- The Green Bay defense has allowed six pass plays of 40+ yards, while Minnesota has given up eight such plays.
- The Green Bay offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Minnesota has created nine such runs.
- The Packers defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Vikings have given up two such runs.
- The Green Bay defensive unit has 34 sacks on the year while Minnesota has 32.
