The Cardinals of Louisville (+17) are set to host the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (-17) at Cardinal Stadium. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN2.
Betting Preview: Louisville Cardinals vs. Kentucky Wildcats
In this Saturday matchup, Kentucky is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 17 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put down $1,400 in order to win $100 back on the Wildcats (-1400). The Cardinals are getting +780 moneyline odds. If one team gets out in front early it’ll generate a decent betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.
The surprising Wildcats are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 9.6 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 3-7.
The Cardinals have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 6.5 units. They’re 1-10 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-4.
The Wildcats have gone 8-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Cardinals are 2-9 SU.
When these two schools met last year, Louisville knocked Kentucky off handily 44-17.
The Wildcats are coming off a resounding 34-23 victory over Middle Tennessee last week in which Terry Wilson completed 10-of-14 passes for just 121 yards and one touchdown. Benny Snell (116 rushing yards on 26 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while C.J. Conrad (four receptions, 51 yards, one TD) and Isaiah Epps (three catches, 24 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Louisville just fell 52-10 to North Carolina State. As a group, the team collectively completed 13-of-25 passes for 157 yards and one interception. Malik Cunningham went eight-for-14 for 90 yards while Jawon Pass was five-of-11 for 67 yards and one interception. Cunningham (100 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Jeremy Smith (74 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the running game while Smith (three receptions, 56 yards) and Hassan Hall (two catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Kentucky has run the ball on 63.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisville has an overall rush percentage of 49.7 percent. The Wildcats have run for 188.7 yards/game and have 20 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Cards are totaling 133.8 rush yards per game and have 17 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Wildcats could own an advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has logged 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Cardinals have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.9 to opponents.
The Wildcats offensive scheme has averaged 156.1 yards in the air overall and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Cards have put up 223.1 pass yards per contest and have 10 total pass scores.
Defensively, Kentucky has allowed opponents to run for an average of 137.5 yards and throw for 190.6 yards per game. The Louisville D has allowed 201.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 271.5 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.95 to opponents, while the Cards have given up a staggering 8.71 ANY/A.
Offensively, Wilson has amassed 1,335 passing yards this year, and has connected on 68 percent of his 196 attempts with seven passing scores and six interceptions. He has a 5.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.41 over the last two games.
We expect the Kentucky offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Benny Snell, C.J. Conrad and Lynn Bowden have combined to account for 391 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
For the home team, Jawon Pass has completed 149-of-275 passes for 1,764 yards, seven TDs and 11 INTs. Pass’ ANY/A sits at 4.17 for the season and 4.05 across his past two outings.
We also expect the Louisville offense to spread things out this Saturday. Malik Cunningham (344 rushing yards, four rush TDs, zero receiving yards this season), Colin Wilson (132 rush yards) and Seth Dawkins (252 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined for 357 total yards and two touchdowns over the past couple of games.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Wildcats, ATS Winner: Wildcats, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- Louisville has lost 10 fumbles this season while Kentucky has let eight get away.
- The Kentucky defensive unit has three times as many sacks as Louisville this year (30 to 10).
- As a team, Kentucky has produced 3.3 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
- Louisville has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.9 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, Louisville is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Kentucky’s previous game going into it was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-23 triumph over Middle Tennessee.
- Over its last three games, Kentucky is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Louisville’s last outing was 66.5. The under cashed in the 52-10 defeat to North Carolina State.
