A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Ed Orgeron and the No. 8 LSU Tigers (+3) are facing off against their in-conference nemesis Texas A&M Aggies (-3) at Kyle Field. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and spectators can watch the action on SEC Network.
Betting Preview: LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
In this Saturday Southeastern game, Texas A&M has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Tigers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Aggies are -140. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points, and if one school can create a bunch of points early on, it will likely generate a solid betting opportunity in-game.
This game’s line opened at -2, while the O/U hasn’t changed since it opened at 47.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Tigers have gained 8.4 units while the Aggies are ahead 1.9 units.
The Tigers have gone 9-2 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 7-4 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play.
Both teams come into this matchup on two-game winning streaks. The Tigers are coming off a resounding 42-10 win over Rice last week. the Tigers completed 24-of-34 passes for 372 yards and two touchdowns. Joe Burrow went 20-for-28 for 307 yards and two touchdowns while Myles Brennan completed four-of-six for 65 yards. Nick Brossette (69 rushing yards on 14 attempts, two TDs) provided the running attack in the win while Foster Moreau (five receptions, 73 yards, one TD) and Derrick Dillon (five catches, 31 yards) manned the receiving duties.
Texas A&M is coming off of a blowout 41-20 win over UAB. The defense allowed the Blazers to pass for 306 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 111 yards. Andre Wilson had a good showing in the loss, recording 89 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for UAB. For Texas A&M, Kellen Mond completed 11-of-20 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Trayveon Williams (167 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground game in the win as Jace Sternberger (four receptions, 85 yards, two TDs) and Jhamon Ausbon (two catches, 26 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
LSU has run the ball on 59.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas A&M has an overall rush percentage of 55.1 percent. The Tigers have produced 171.0 rush yards per game (including 163.3 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 25 scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are totaling 201.1 rushing yards per game (157.9 in conference) and have 20 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Aggies could have an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has logged 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.0 to opponents. The Tigers have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 208.6 yards in the air overall (205.9 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Aggies have produced 259.7 pass yards per outing (247 in the SEC) and have 18 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, LSU appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 130.7 rush yards and 199.5 pass yards per game. The Texas A&M defense has given up 261.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 80.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.82 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have given up an 8.05 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Burrow has put up 2,035 yards this year. He’s connected on 55 percent of his 286 attempts with eight passing scores and four interceptions. Burrow has a 6.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.15 over the last two games.
Justin Jefferson (608 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Nick Brossette (771 rush yards, 12 rush TDs) and Stephen Sullivan (278 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played key roles of late.
In the home locker room, Kellen Mond has managed to complete 182-of-312 passes for 2,444 yards, 14 TDs and seven INTs. Mond’s ANY/A stands at 6.47 for the year and 9.44 over his last two outings.
We also expect the Texas A&M offense to try for a balanced attack this Saturday. Trayveon Williams, Jace Sternberger and Jhamon Ausbon have combined to account for 671 total yards and five touchdowns the last couple of games.
When these two squads met last year, LSU won easily 45-21.
LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies Free Pick
SU Winner: LSU, ATS Winner: LSU, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- Texas A&M has lost eight fumbles this season while LSU has lost six.
- The Texas A&M defense has registered 29 sacks on the year while LSU has 27.
- As a team, LSU has produced 3.3 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Texas A&M has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.3 over its last two.
- LSU has won five of its last six games SU, with a 29-point defeat to Alabama on November 3rd representing the only loss over that stretch.
