A couple of schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Coach Craig Bohl and the Wyoming Cowboys (-7.5) are taking the field against the New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This conference showdown will get underway at 2:30 p.m. ET and ATSN is scheduled to broadcast the action. When these two programs faced one another last year, Wyoming knocked New Mexico off soundly 42-3.
Betting Preview: Wyoming Cowboys vs. New Mexico Lobos
In this Saturday Mountain West game, Wyoming is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 7.5 points. The Cowboys are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +250. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points, and if one school catches a lucky break in the early stages, it’ll probably create a nice live betting opportunity.
The sharp action has been siding with the under, as the game’s O/U originally opened at 47.
The Cowboys are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.9 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-5.
The Lobos have lost 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-7 ATS and own an O/U record of 7-3.
The Cowboys have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against MWC opponents. The Lobos are 3-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
New Mexico comes into this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Wyoming has lost zero in a row. The Cowboys look to keep it going after a 35-27 victory over Air Force last week. Tyler Vander Waal completed only 14 passes on 26 attempts for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Jevon Bigelow (35 yards on nine rush attempts) led the ground attack. Tyree Mayfield (four receptions, 112 yards) and James Price (four catches, 54 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
New Mexico just fell convincingly 45-14 to Boise State. The team’s defense allowed the Broncos to kill the clock by rushing for 227 yards on 41 attempts, including two rush TDs. Alexander Mattison was a force to be reckoned with, recording 145 rushing yards and a score on 20 attempts, along with 40 yards on three catches for Boise State. For New Mexico, Sheriron Jones completed eight-of-13 passes for 103 yards and one interception. Tyrone Owens (41 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and the signal-caller Jones (56 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running attack while Delane Hart-Johnson (four receptions, 77 yards) and Jay Griffin IV (one catch, -1 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Each of these teams sports a strikingly similar (63-37) run-pass ratio on the season. The Cowboys have rushed for 184.3 yards/game (including 199.9 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 162.6 rush yards per game (140.6 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Cowboys might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Lobos have ran for 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.
The Cowboys offense has logged 139.5 yards per game through the air overall (135.3 per game against conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Lobos have produced 189.8 pass yards per game (157 in the MWC) and have 21 total pass TDs.
Wyoming should possess an edge in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 136.8 yards and pass for 211.5 yards per game. The New Mexico D has allowed 275.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 203.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Cowboys are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.40 to opponents, while the Lobos have allowed an 8.00 ANY/A.
Offensively, Vander Waal is up to 1,269 passing yards this season. He’s completed 116-of-229 attempts with five passing scores and four interceptions. Vander Waal’s got a 4.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.56 over the last two outings.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Wyoming in this one. As a group, Nico Evans, Sean Chambers and Tyree Mayfield have combined to account for 457 total yards and two touchdowns over the last two outings.
For the home team, Sheriron Jones has managed to complete 95-of-175 passes for 1,300 yards, 13 TDs and 11 INTs. Jones’ ANY/A stands at 5.41 for the year and 3.92 over his last two games.
We expect the Lobos to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Delane Hart-Johnson (424 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Daevon Vigilant (115 rush yards, one rush TD) and Tyrone Owens (622 rush yards, six rush TDs, one TD) have been focal points in the New Mexico offense.
<SU Winner: Wyoming, ATS Winner: Wyoming, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Cowboys offense has registered six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have accounted for nine such plays.
- The Wyoming defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while New Mexico has given up 12 such plays.
- The Wyoming offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Mexico has created 11 such runs.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lobos have given up 12 such runs.
- The New Mexico defense has produced 23 sacks on the year while Wyoming has just 15.
- Wyoming, as a team, has averaged 5.5 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.8 over its last two.
- New Mexico has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.4 over its past two.
- In its last three contests, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Wyoming’s previous game was set at 43. The over cashed in the team’s 35-27 triumph over Air Force.
- In its last three matchups, Wyoming is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for New Mexico’s previous matchup was set at 61.5. The under cashed in the 45-14 defeat to Boise State.
- ew Mexico has dropped eight of its last nine games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th accounting for the lone victory over that stretch.
