In a display of two schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Lance Leipold and the Buffalo Bulls (-14) are facing off against the Bowling Green Falcons at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. This MAC showdown will get going at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU is scheduled to have the TV rights. These squads met last year with the final outcome being a 38-28 win for Buffalo.
Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Buffalo Bulls
Bowling Green is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 14 points in this Friday MAC matchup. The Bulls are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Falcons are +500. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58. With the Falcons getting 14 points, Vegas is speculating that this could be a 22-36 win for the Bulls. If one side can find paydirt early, it’ll likely produce a decent in-game betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are hammering both the Bulls and the over. The opening line was originally placed at 13 while the game’s O/U was initially only 56.
The profitable Bulls have gained 5.0 units so far and are 8-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 8-2.
The Falcons have gained 0.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-7 ATS and own an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Bulls have gone 9-2 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against MAC opponents. The Falcons are 3-8 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Bulls are looking to get back in stride after a 52-17 loss to Ohio last week. The passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Tyree Jackson completed only nine passes on 21 attempts for 116 yards and two interceptions. Kevin Marks (54 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack while Anthony Johnson (six receptions, 95 yards) and Charlie Jones (two catches, 16 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Bowling Green just got a 21-6 win over Akron. The defense held its territory in the victory, limiting the Zips to only 148 passing yards and 79 rushing yards. Van Edwards, Jr. had a productive outing in the defeat for Akron, posting 69 rushing yards on 18 attempts. For Bowling Green, Jarret Doege completed 19-of-27 passes for 178 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Rico Frye (59 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Andrew Clair (112 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running game as Scott Miller (six receptions, 100 yards) and Bryson Denley (three catches, zero yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Buffalo has run the ball on 57.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Bowling Green has an overall rush percentage of 50.7 percent. The Bulls have produced 188.4 rush yards/game (including 211.6 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 28 scores on the ground this year. The Falcons are logging 121.9 rushing yards per game (142.4 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.
Based on the results so far, it’s looking like the Bulls ought to hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has produced 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents. The Falcons have ran for 3.4 yards per carry and allowed 5.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has tallied 225.3 yards per game in the air overall (226.9 per game versus conference opposition) and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Falcons have put up 247.0 pass yards per outing (248 in the MAC) and have 27 total pass scores.
Buffalo has let opponents rush for an average of 179.6 yards and throw for 177.5 yards per game. The Bowling Green D has allowed 169.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 275.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.56 to opponents, while the Falcons have allowed a 7.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Jackson is up to 2,343 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 56 percent of his 301 attempts with 23 passing scores and 10 interceptions. He’s got a 7.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.24 over the last two games.
The Bulls will likely try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Anthony Johnson (768 yards, eight TDs), Jaret Patterson (599 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Kevin Marks (633 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have delivered in the Buffalo offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Jarret Doege has managed to complete 221-of-349 passes for 2,463 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs. Doege’s ANY/A sits at 6.20 for the season and 4.30 across his last two outings.
The Falcons also like to keep their running backs featured. Along with Scott Miller (960 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs), Andrew Clair (607 rush yards, four rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Rico Frye (271 rush yards, one rush TD) have gotten plenty of touches recently.
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Buffalo, ATS Winner: Buffalo, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Bulls offense has tallied 13 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Falcons have put up 10 such plays.
- The Buffalo defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Bowling Green has given up 10 such plays.
- The Buffalo offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Bowling Green has created 14 such runs.
- The Bulls defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 27 such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has 28 sacks on the year while Bowling Green has just 15.
- Buffalo, as a team, has averaged 5.6 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 6.5 over its last two.
- Bowling Green has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
- In its last three games, Bowling Green is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game was set at 65. The over cashed in the team’s 52-17 defeat to Ohio.
- In its last three contests, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Bowling Green’s last game was set at 48. The under cashed in the 21-6 victory over Akron.
