College Football Free ATS Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos

In a display of two teams that like to feature their running games, Head Coach Bryan Harsin and the No. 23 Boise State Broncos (-20) are ready to pay a visit to their in-conference rival New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This showdown will kick off fairly late for those on the East Coast (9:00 p.m. ET) and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos

In this Friday Mountain West game, Boise State is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 20 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put up $1,800 in order to win $100 back on the Broncos (-1800). The Lobos are getting +900 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 62.5 points, and some decent live betting opportunities should present themselves throughout the matchup.

The over/under hasn’t changed after being initially posted at 62.5. Having said that, the opening line was 21.5 and the early action has slanted to the Lobos.

The Broncos are down 0.6 units so far and 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 5-4-1.

The Lobos are down 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-2.

The Broncos have gone 8-2 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 3-7 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.

New Mexico comes into this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Boise State has lost zero in a row. The Broncos are coming off a 24-17 victory over Fresno State last week. The Broncos defense allowed the Bulldogs to rush for 107 yards on 28 attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offensive side, Brett Rypien completed 24 passes on 29 attempts for 269 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Alexander Mattison (144 rushing yards on 30 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack. A.J. Richardson (five receptions, 66 yards) and Sean Modster (five catches, 63 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

New Mexico most-recently fell 42-24 to Air Force. As a group, the team collectively completed 13-of-18 passes for 186 yards and one interception. Coltin Gerhart went seven-for-nine for 72 yards while Sheriron Jones was six-of-nine for 114 yards and one interception. Daevon Vigilant (67 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Delane Hart-Johnson (three receptions, 83 yards) and Anselem Umeh (three catches, 77 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Boise State has run the ball on 50.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has an overall rush percentage of 62.4 percent. The Broncos have run for 152.7 yards per game (including 144.8 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Lobos are totaling 163.0 rushing yards per game (137.5 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.

Judging by the results this season, it seems like the Broncos could have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 4.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Lobos have ran for 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.6 to opponents.

The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 313.9 yards through the air overall (303.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Lobos have recorded 198.5 pass yards per game (166 in the MWC) and have 21 total pass TDs.

Boise State seems to have the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 125.9 yards and pass for 239.3 yards per game. The New Mexico defense has allowed 280.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 201.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.67 to opponents, while the Lobos have given up a 7.92 ANY/A.

Rypien has been more productive than Jones of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.47for the season and 6.34 over his last two outings. Jones’ ANY/A is 5.54 for the season and 4.73 over his past two games.

When these two schools met last year, Boise State won by a couple of touchdowns 28-14.

Boise State Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos Free Prediction

SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

The Boise State defensive unit has 34 sacks on the year while New Mexico has just 20.

New Mexico has lost seven fumbles this season while the Boise State offense has lost four.

The Broncos offense has created 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Lobos have put up nine such plays.

The Boise State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up 12 such plays.

The Boise State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Mexico has created 11 such runs.

The Broncos defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lobos have given up 11 such runs.

The O/U for New Mexico’s previous game was 55.5. The over cashed in the 42-24 defeat to Air Force.

Over its last three games, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

In its last three matchups, Boise State is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

New Mexico has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th accounting for its lone victory over that span.

The O/U for Boise State’s last game was set at 55. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 win over Fresno State.

Boise State has rushed for 3.6 yards per attempt over its past three outings and 3.6 over its last two.

New Mexico has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.