The North Carolina Tar Heels (+11) aren’t traveling far to face their conference counterpart Duke Blue Devils at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 12:20 p.m. ET and CHSS will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
North Carolina is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 11 points in this ACC game. The Tar Heels are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Blue Devils are -425. It appears that there should be some decent live betting opportunities while this game is underway, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.
The disappointing Tar Heels are 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 13.1 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 6-2.
The Blue Devils have gained 0.1 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 4-5.
The Tar Heels are 1-7 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against conference opponents. The Blue Devils are 6-3 SU overall and 2-3 SU in conference play.
The Heels hope to get back in stride after a 38-28 defeat to Georgia Tech last week where the Tar Heels completed 18-of-31 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Nathan Elliott went 14-for-26 for 128 yards and three interceptions while Jace Ruder completed four-of-five for 80 yards and one touchdown. Antonio Williams (only 33 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Michael Carter (68 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while Anthony Ratliff-Williams (four receptions, 103 yards) and Dazz Newsome (three catches, 17 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Duke just earned a 20-12 win over Miami (FL). Daniel Jones completed 17-of-35 passes for 130 yards and one interception. Deon Jackson (113 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game while T.J. Rahming (five receptions, 26 yards) and Johnathan Lloyd (five catches, 40 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
North Carolina has run the ball on 48.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Duke has a rush percentage of 53.1 percent. The Tar Heels have run for 169.9 yards/game (including 172.3 per game versus Atlantic Coast opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Blue Devils are putting up 163.8 rush yards per game (119.2 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
The Heels offensive scheme has tallied 235.6 yards per game in the air overall (252.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Blue Devils have put up 232.8 pass yards per outing (253 against ACC foes) and have 22 total pass TDs.
North Carolina has allowed opponents to run for an average of 225.0 yards and throw for 207.0 yards per game. The Duke defense has given up 190.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 200.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Heels have given up an ANY/A of 6.24 to opposing QBs, while the Blue Devils are yielding an ANY/A of 5.78.
Offensively, Elliott has amassed 1,369 passing yards this season, and has connected on 134-of-222 attempts with six scores through the air and seven interceptions. Elliott’s got a 5.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.58 over the last two outings.
The Tar Heels will likely try to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Anthony Ratliff-Williams (457 yards, two TDs), Michael Carter (360 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Antonio Williams (457 rush yards, five rush TDs, 80 receiving yards) have delivered in the North Carolina offensive scheme.
Daniel Jones has managed to complete 108-of-176 passes for 1,191 yards, nine TDs and five INTs for Duke. His ANY/A sits at 5.53 for the year and 6.76 over his past two outings.
The Blue Devils should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Deon Jackson (77 receiving yards), Johnathan Lloyd (three rush yards, 344 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and T.J. Rahming (54 rush yards, 342 receiving yards, four TDs) have seen a lot of looks lately.
When these two squads met last year, Duke earned the win 27-17.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: North Carolina, ATS Winner: North Carolina, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for North Carolina’s last game going into it was 64. The over cashed in the team’s 38-28 loss to Georgia Tech.
- As a team, North Carolina has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.
- Duke has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.8 over its last two.
- Duke has lost five fumbles this season while North Carolina has lost eight.
- In its last three matches, North Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Duke’s last outing going into it was 50.5. The under cashed in the 20-12 victory over Miami (FL).
- In its last three matches, Duke is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Tar Heels offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Blue Devils have accounted for eight such plays.
- The North Carolina defense has allowed six pass plays of 40+ yards, while Duke has given up three such plays.
- The North Carolina offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Duke has created 13 such runs.
- The Tar Heels defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Blue Devils have given up 15 such runs.
- The North Carolina D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Duke has recorded 19 sacks.
