The No. 14 Aggies (-31) are gearing up to greet their in-conference foe San Jose State Spartans in Utah State. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET and STAD,FCBK will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies
San Jose State is a big road underdog here and is currently getting 31 points by oddsmakers. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 63 points. There might be some solid live betting opportunities during this match.
With the spread opening at -30 and the O/U initially placed at 62.5, the betting odds have moved slightly.
The Spartans are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.5 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-4.
The Aggies have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this year, gaining 5.0 units. The team is 8-1 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Spartans have gone just 1-8 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against MWC opponents. The Aggies are 8-1 SU overall and 5-0 SU in conference play.
The Spartans dropped one to Wyoming 24-9 in a matchup where Josh Love completed 19 passes for just 173 yards and one touchdown. Tyler Nevens (70 yards on 17 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the loss. Josh Oliver (five receptions, 66 yards) and Nevens (four catches, 20 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Utah State enters this one having just earned a big 56-17 win over Hawaii. The team’s defensive secondary let the Rainbow Warriors air it out for 347 yards and two touchdowns. Marcus Armstrong-Brown was a bright spot in the loss for Hawaii, recording 85 yards and a score on four catches. As a group, the Aggies collectively completed 19-of-24 passes for 175 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Love went 10-for-13 for 127 yards and one touchdown while Henry Colombi was nine-of-11 for 48 yards. Gerold Bright (121 rushing yards on 16 attempts, three TDs) and Darwin Thompson (141 yards on 13 carries, three TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Ron’quavion Tarver (five receptions, 40 yards, one TD) and Jordan Nathan (two catches, 17 yards) led the receiving attack.
San Jose State has run the ball on 46.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 54.0 percent. The Spartans have produced 65.8 rush yards/game (including 75.4 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have eight scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are putting up 216.3 rush yards per game (221.8 in conference) and have 31 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Aggies could hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Spartans have ran for 2.1 yards per carry while allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Spartans offense has logged 256.7 yards/game through the air overall (288.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Aggies have recorded 269.3 pass yards per outing (295 against MWC competition) and have 19 total pass TDs.
San Jose State has let opponents rush for an average of 210.3 yards and pass for 251.8 yards per game. The Utah State defense has allowed 213.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.07 to opponents, while the Spartans have given up a 6.68 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Love is up to 1,418 yards on the year, and has completed 119-of-217 attempts with nine scores through the air and six interceptions. He’s got a 5.25 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.58 over the last two outings.
We expect the San Jose State offense to mix it up in this one. Tyler Nevens, Tre Walker and Josh Oliver have combined to account for 449 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
Jordan Love has managed to complete 147-of-227 passes for 1,737 yards, 15 TDs and four INTs for Utah State. His ANY/A sits at 7.78 for the year and 13.96 across his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Aggies to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Ron’quavion Tarver (345 receiving yards, five TDs this season) has contributed lately, but Darwin Thompson (676 rush yards, 12 rush TDs, 145 receiving yards) and Gerold Bright (577 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) have delivered significant production to the Utah State offense.
These two squads faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 61-10 victory for Utah State.
San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies Bedding Prediction
SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: San Jose State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Utah State defense has sacked opposing QBs 24 times this season. San Jose State has recorded just 10 sacks.
- Utah State has lost 10 fumbles in 2018 while San Jose State has let five get away.
- The Spartans offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have accounted for five such plays.
- The San Jose State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while Utah State has given up seven such plays.
- The San Jose State offense has created three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Utah State has created 23 such runs.
- The Spartans defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Aggies have given up 10 such runs.
- The Over/Under for Utah State’s previous matchup was set at 73. The O/U pushed in the team’s 56-17 victory over Hawaii.
- In its last three games, Utah State is 2-1 ATS.
- Over its last three contests, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for San Jose State’s last game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-9 defeat to Wyoming.
- San Jose State has averaged 3.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 3.6 over its last two.
- Utah State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.0 over its last two.
