The New England Patriots (-14) are set to take on their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. ESPN is scheduled to have the TV rights and this Monday Night showdown kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Thursday Night FootballBetting Preview: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is getting picked to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 14 points in this Monday AFC game. The Patriots are also receiving -925 moneyline odds while the Bills are +550. If one squad catches a lucky break early it’ll produce a decent betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 44.5 points.
The over/under has not changed after it was initially posted at 44.5. Having said that, the opening line was 13 and early action has shifted toward the Patriots.
The Patriots have gained 0.9 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.
The Bills have lost 2.8 units this season. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-5.
The Patriots are 5-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Bills are 2-5 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.
New England enters this contest on a zero-game winless streak while Buffalo has won zero in a row. The Pats look to keep it going after a 38-31 victory over Chicago in Week 7 where Tom Brady completed 25-of-36 passes for 277 yards, three scores and one interception. James White (40 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and Kenjon Barner (36 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while White (eight receptions, 57 yards, two TDs) and Chris Hogan (six catches, 63 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Back in Week 7, Indianapolis knocked off this Buffalo team by a score of 37-5. The Bills defense allowed the Colts to eat up the clock by running for 220 yards on 37 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Marlon Mack was outstandingfor the Colts, putting up 126 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. For Buffalo, Derek Anderson completed 20-of-31 passes for 175 yards and three interceptions. Chris Ivory (81 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Marcus Murphy (53 yards on four carries) mounted the running game while Murphy (five receptions, 17 yards) and Kelvin Benjamin (four catches, 71 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
New England’s run the ball on 44.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Patriots have run for 120.9 yards per game (including 175.0 per game against East opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bills are averaging 104.6 rushing yards per game (0.0 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.
The Pats offensive scheme has averaged 268.0 yards through the air overall (274.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Bills have recorded 156.0 pass yards per outing (0 in the AFC) and have three total pass scores.
Defensively, New England has allowed opponents to run for an average of 114.0 yards and throw for 285.6 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has given up 224.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 110.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 6.19 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are allowing an ANY/A of 5.93.
Passing-wise, Brady is up to 1,536 yards this season, and has completed 68 percent of his 215 attempts with 15 passing scores and seven interceptions. Brady’s got a 6.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.58 over the past two outings.
Derek Anderson has completed 20-of-31 passes for 175 yards, zero TDs and three INTs for Buffalo. His ANY/A sits at a terrible 1.00 for the season.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Pick
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for New England’s last game was set at 49. The over cashed in the team’s 38-31 victory over Chicago.
- New England, as a team, has rushed for 4.3 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
- Buffalo has lost four fumbles this season while New England has lost six.
- Over its last three matches, New England is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Buffalo’s last outing going into it was 43.5. The under cashed in the team’s 37-5 loss to Indianapolis.
- In its last three contests, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Buffalo has lost four of its last five games SU, with a one-point victory over Tennessee on October 7th accounting for the one win over that stretch.
- The Patriots offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bills have put up two such plays.
- The New England defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Buffalo has given up one such play.
- The New England offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Buffalo has created four such runs.
- Both defenses have allowed five rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Patriots have given up 24 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bills have given up 28 such plays.
- The Buffalo defense has tallied more than twice as many sacks as New England this year (19 versus nine).
