It will be a showdown between two sensational offenses when the Denver Nuggets (4-1) challenge the New Orleans Pelicans (4-1) at Pepsi Center. Action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, October 29, 2018, and can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last matchup. The Nuggets (1-point favorites) were defeated by the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-114, while the Pelicans (6-point underdogs) fell to the Utah Jazz, 132-111. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Denver game went 0.5 points over the projected point total of 234.5, while the New Orleans game went 23 points over the projected point total of 220.
New Orleans held Utah to an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.1 (below the 22.2 mark opponents have averaged against New Orleans this season) while Denver had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.3 vs. 20.9). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver, recording 24 points and 11 rebounds. New Orleans, meanwhile, was lifted by Nikola Mirotic, who finished with 25 points and eight rebounds.
The offensive glass could be a huge advantage for Denver in this showdown. Since the 2017-18 season, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while New Orleans ranks 18th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). Also, the Pelicans’ fourth-ranked offense (effective field goal percentage of 0.540) will square off against the Nuggets’ 26th-ranked defense (effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.537).
Of the Pelicans’ 5 games, three have finished over the total. New Orleans holds records of 4-1 straight up (SU) and 3-2 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike New Orleans, games including the Nuggets have a tendency to finish under the total (60.0 percent). Further, Denver owns records of 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS.
The Nuggets edged out the Pelicans in this series last year, winning two out of three games. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 117-111. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.9 vs. 15.9). New Orleans, meanwhile, did a great job of converting from the charity stripe (10-14; 71.4 percent).
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- The Pelicans rank eighth in steals per game (8.0) while the Nuggets rank 20th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
- Denver averages 14.2 second chance points per game, which ranks second in the league. New Orleans ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
- The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (26.8) while the Nuggets rank 26th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
- Denver averages 13.7 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.6).
- Denver ranks ninth in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Pelicans rank 25th (45.5).
- The Nuggets average 30.7 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (30.8).
- New Orleans ranks third in blocks per game (5.9) while Denver ranks 14th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
- New Orleans averages 53.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the league. Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4).
- When holding opponents under 100 points, New Orleans is 13-2 and Denver is 18-2.
- The Pelicans are 53-26 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 43-27.
