Duke Blue Devils vs. Pittsburgh Panthers NCAA Football Free Pick

Victor TrejosCollege Football, Football

In a battle featuring two schools that prefer running the football, Coach David Cutcliffe and the Duke Blue Devils (-2.5) will be taking the field against their ACC counterpart Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. This afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on CHSS.

Betting Preview: Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers

Pittsburgh is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 2.5 points in this Saturday ACC game. The Blue Devils are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +120. Multiple good live betting opportunities may present themselves during this game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.

The Blue Devils are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.3 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-4.

The Panthers have lost 0.7 units this season. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.

The Blue Devils have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against ACC opponents. The Panthers are 3-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Blue Devils dropped one to Virginia 28-14 in a contest where their defense allowed the Cavaliers to rush for 178 yards on 44 attempts, including two rush TDs. Olamide Zaccheaus had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 66 yards on 10 catches. On the offensive side, Daniel Jones completed just 22 passes on 40 attempts for 240 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jones (37 yards on 15 rush attempts) also led the running attack in the loss and was complemented by Deon Jackson (17 yards on 11 carries). T.J. Rahming (six receptions, 37 yards) and Chris Taylor (six catches, 97 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.

Pittsburgh just fell 19-14 to Notre Dame. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Fighting Irish to air it out for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Miles Boykin put up a productive outing, recording 84 yards on four catches for Notre Dame. For Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett completed 19-of-28 passes for 126 yards. Qadree Ollison (50 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and Darrin Hall (62 yards on nine carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Rafael Araujo-Lopes (six receptions, 32 yards) and Aaron Mathews (four catches, 47 yards) led the receiving attack.

Duke has run the ball on 55.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Pittsburgh has an overall rush percentage of 60.6 percent. The Blue Devils have run for 157.9 yards per game (including 75.7 per game versus Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 10 scores via handoffs this year. The Panthers are putting up 191.3 rushing yards per game (210.3 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Blue Devils offensive scheme has averaged 222.1 yards through the air overall (241.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have recorded 145.9 pass yards per game (169 against ACC foes) and have six total pass scores.

Defensively, Duke seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 145.9 yards and pass for 207.9 yards per game. The Pittsburgh defense has given up 229.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 180.1 yards per game on the ground. The Blue Devils are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.82 to opponents, while the Panthers have given up a 6.46 ANY/A.

Jones has been more effective than Pickett lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.31for the year (and 4.56 over the last two outings). Pickett’s ANY/A is 4.30 for the season and 3.85 across his past two games.

When these two programs faced each other a year ago, Pittsburgh won by a touchdown 24-17.

Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers Free Prediction

SU Winner: Duke, ATS Winner: Duke, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Duke defensive unit has 15 sacks on the year while Pittsburgh has 14.
  • Pittsburgh has lost six fumbles this season while Duke has lost four.
  • The Blue Devils offense has created six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Panthers have accounted for five such plays.
  • The Duke defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Pittsburgh has given up six such plays.
  • The Duke offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Pittsburgh has created 10 such runs.
  • The Blue Devils defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up 16 such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Pittsburgh’s last matchup was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the team’s 19-14 defeat to Notre Dame.
  • In its last three contests, Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matchups, Duke is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Duke’s previous game going into it was 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-14 loss to Virginia.
  • Duke, as a team, has averaged 2.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.6 over its last two.
  • Pittsburgh has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.